Johvi Phoenix v Luunja prediction · Esiliiga B

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 18:30

Johvi Phoenix 1–3 Luunja JOHVI PHOENIX WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Johvi Phoenix win~~48%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.704

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.852

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Johvi Phoenix win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Johvi Phoenix 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–20–33
1′KICK-OFF Johvi Phoenix v Luunja
19′We said Johvi Phoenix at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–20–55
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Johvi Phoenix 0–1 Luunja
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Johvi Phoenix win: 48% at kick-off, 25% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Luunja win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Johvi Phoenix win 25%)
20′A goal for Luunja on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 25–21–55
22′We said Johvi Phoenix at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–21–55
23′Luunja score on 23′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 11–14–76
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Johvi Phoenix 0–2 Luunja
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Johvi Phoenix win: 48% at kick-off, 11% now
24′We said Johvi Phoenix at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–2 · 10–13–76
25′Johvi Phoenix find the net on 24′. 1–2. 1–2 · 24–21–55
25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Johvi Phoenix 1–2 Luunja
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Johvi Phoenix win: 48% at kick-off, 24% now
39′We said Johvi Phoenix at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–23–58
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Johvi Phoenix win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
45′HALF-TIME Johvi Phoenix 1–2 Luunja
46′SECOND HALF Johvi Phoenix 1–2 Luunja
54′The goal count is tracking the 4.4 we expected. 1–2 · 14–24–62
60′A goal for Luunja on 60′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 3–9–89
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Johvi Phoenix 1–3 Luunja
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Johvi Phoenix win: 48% at kick-off, 3% now
61′We said Johvi Phoenix at 48%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 1–3 · 3–8–89
FTFULL TIME Johvi Phoenix 1–3 Luunja
FTJohvi Phoenix 1–3 Luunja · Johvi Phoenix win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Johvi Phoenix are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Johvi Phoenix 48%, draw 18%, Luunja 34%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 77%.

The AI’s read on Johvi Phoenix v LuunjaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Johvi Phoenix win48%

Draw18%

Luunja win34%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Johvi Phoenix

Luunja

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Luunja	31	+12	50

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · johvi phoenix winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 12 Oct 00:09 · locked at kick-off

48% The market53%

Us48%

~~Market~~53%

We make Johvi Phoenix a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Johvi Phoenix v Luunja~~2.38 – 1.98

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~The market · Johvi Phoenix win~~53% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Johvi Phoenix win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 48% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Johvi Phoenix win	48%	53%	−5
Draw	18%	20%	−2
Luunja win	34%	27%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Both teams to score	77%	80%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	92%	93%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	63%	67%	−4
Johvi Phoenix or draw	66%	73%	−7
Johvi Phoenix clean sheet	15%	–	–
Luunja clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.0%

0123450 3.2 2.6 1 3.7 5.6 5.9 3.9 2 3.7 7.0 6.8 4.5 2.3 3 2.9 5.5 5.3 3.5 4 3.3 3.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Johvi Phoenix down, Luunja across0–5 goals a side shown (94.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 521 Esiliiga B matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.6% of games this season, across 157 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Johvi Phoenix at home: 3.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Luunja away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.38 goals for Johvi Phoenix, 1.98 for Luunja. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~LUU 2–3 JOH · JOH 2–4 LUU · LUU 6–1 JOH · LUU 1–1 JOH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 29 Aug

JOHVI PHOENIX

WLWWWL3–0 · 2–6 · 3–2 · 4–3 · 3–2 · 0–1

LUUNJA

LLWLLW2–5 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	31	+36	66
2	Levadia U19	32	+28	62
3	Phoenix	31	+2	54
4	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	32	+34	50
5	Tulevik	32	+18	50
6	Luunja	31	+12	50
7	Tartu Kalev	31	+12	47
8	JK Tabasalu	32	−39	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	32	−15	30
10	Legion	32	−88	13