JK Tabasalu v Tartu Kalev prediction · Esiliiga B

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 13:21

JK Tabasalu 2–1 Tartu Kalev TARTU KALEV WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tartu Kalev win~~50%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.792

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.777

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tartu Kalev win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tartu Kalev 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 29–20–50
1′KICK-OFF JK Tabasalu v Tartu Kalev
9′JK Tabasalu find the net on 9′. 1–0. 1–0 · 51–22–27
9′We said Tartu Kalev at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–0 · 51–22–27
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' JK Tabasalu 1–0 Tartu Kalev
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Tartu Kalev win: 50% at kick-off, 27% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' JK Tabasalu win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Tartu Kalev win 49%)
12′A goal for Tartu Kalev on 11′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–22–49
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' JK Tabasalu 1–1 Tartu Kalev
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Tartu Kalev win: 50% at kick-off, 49% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Tartu Kalev win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was JK Tabasalu win 51%)
42′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–1 · 27–31–42
45′HALF-TIME JK Tabasalu 1–1 Tartu Kalev
46′SECOND HALF JK Tabasalu 1–1 Tartu Kalev
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Tartu Kalev win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
52′We said Tartu Kalev at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 25–36–38
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Tartu Kalev win 38%)
60′We said Tartu Kalev at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 23–42–34
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Tartu Kalev win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
74′We said Tartu Kalev at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 17–59–24
78′JK Tabasalu score on 78′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 80–17–3
78′We said Tartu Kalev at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' JK Tabasalu 2–1 Tartu Kalev
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Tartu Kalev win: 50% at kick-off, 3% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' JK Tabasalu win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 64%)
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Tartu Kalev win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME JK Tabasalu 2–1 Tartu Kalev
FTJK Tabasalu 2–1 Tartu Kalev · Tartu Kalev win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tartu Kalev are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: JK Tabasalu 29%, draw 20%, Tartu Kalev 50%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on JK Tabasalu v Tartu KalevBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

JK Tabasalu win29%

Draw20%

Tartu Kalev win50%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 34

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

JK Tabasalu

Tartu Kalev

5Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · Esiliiga B

Last match: 18 Oct · Esiliiga B

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Tartu Kalev	33	+14	50
8	JK Tabasalu	33	−39	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tartu kalev winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

50% The market48%

Us50%

~~Market~~48%

We make Tartu Kalev a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · JK Tabasalu v Tartu Kalev~~1.49 – 2.02

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 10 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 34 v 50~~8 v 7

~~The market · Tartu Kalev win~~48% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tartu Kalev win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
JK Tabasalu win	29%	30%	−1
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Tartu Kalev win	50%	48%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	67%	74%	−7
Both teams to score	65%	73%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	85%	88%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	46%	55%	−9
JK Tabasalu or draw	50%	52%	−2
JK Tabasalu clean sheet	14%	–	–
Tartu Kalev clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.8%

0123450 2.6 6.9 6.2 4.2 2.2 1 5.2 8.3 8.8 5.9 3.0 2 3.4 6.6 6.4 4.3 2.2 3 3.3 3.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+JK Tabasalu down, Tartu Kalev across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 528 Esiliiga B matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.3% of games this season, across 164 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 4.29 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

JK Tabasalu at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Tartu Kalev away: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for JK Tabasalu, 2.02 for Tartu Kalev. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.29

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~TAR 3–1 JKT · JKT 3–1 TAR · TAR 4–0 JKT · JKT 3–9 TAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 10 Sept

JK TABASALU

LDLLLD1–4 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

TARTU KALEV

WWLLLW2–1 · 4–0 · 1–6 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	33	+38	70
2	Levadia U19	33	+30	65
3	Luunja	33	+25	56
4	Phoenix	33	−4	54
5	Tulevik	33	+19	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	+33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	33	+14	50
8	JK Tabasalu	33	−39	34
9	Tallinna Kalev II	33	−17	30
10	Legion	33	−99	13