JK Tabasalu v Narva U21 prediction · Esiliiga B

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

JK Tabasalu 0–0 Narva U21 NARVA U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Narva U21 win~~61%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.064

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.293

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Narva U21 win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Narva U21 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 20–19–61
1′KICK-OFF JK Tabasalu v Narva U21
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Narva U21 win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
40′We said Narva U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 19–31–49
45′HALF-TIME JK Tabasalu 0–0 Narva U21
46′SECOND HALF JK Tabasalu 0–0 Narva U21
51′We said Narva U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 18–37–44
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.1 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 18–40–42
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Narva U21 win: 61% at kick-off, 41% now
60′We said Narva U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 17–44–39
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Narva U21 win 42%)
66′We said Narva U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 15–50–34
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Narva U21 win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
72′We said Narva U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 13–58–29
76′We said Narva U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 11–65–24
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Narva U21 win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
80′We said Narva U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 9–72–19
83′We said Narva U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 7–79–14
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Narva U21 win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
87′We said Narva U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 5–86–9
92′We said Narva U21 at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 2–93–4
FTFULL TIME JK Tabasalu 0–0 Narva U21
FTJK Tabasalu 0–0 Narva U21 · Narva U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Narva U21 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: JK Tabasalu 20%, draw 19%, Narva U21 61%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on JK Tabasalu v Narva U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

JK Tabasalu win20%

Draw19%

Narva U21 win61%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 33

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

JK Tabasalu

Narva U21

5Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · Esiliiga B

Last match: 15 Oct · Esiliiga B

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · narva u21 winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 18 Oct 00:17 · locked at kick-off

61% The market74%

Us61%

~~Market~~74%

We make Narva U21 a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · JK Tabasalu v Narva U21~~1.07 – 2.07

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 33 v 69~~8 v 1

~~The market · Narva U21 win~~74% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Narva U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
JK Tabasalu win	20%	11%	+9
Draw	19%	15%	+4
Narva U21 win	61%	74%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	60%	74%	−14
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	81%	88%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	38%	55%	−17
JK Tabasalu or draw	39%	26%	+13
JK Tabasalu clean sheet	13%	–	–
Narva U21 clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 9.9%

0123450 3.9 9.9 9.3 6.5 3.4 1 5.4 8.6 9.4 6.5 3.4 2 2.5 5.0 5.1 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+JK Tabasalu down, Narva U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 526 Esiliiga B matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 79.6% of games this season, across 162 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

JK Tabasalu at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Narva U21 away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for JK Tabasalu, 2.07 for Narva U21. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~NAR 4–0 JKT · NAR 5–0 JKT · JKT 1–0 NAR · NAR 2–1 JKT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga B this season · since 5 Sept

JK TABASALU

WLDLLL3–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 1–2

NARVA U21

WWWWWW1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	32	+38	69
2	Levadia U19	33	+30	65
3	Phoenix	33	−4	54
4	Tulevik	33	+19	53
5	Luunja	32	+14	53
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	33	+33	50
7	Tartu Kalev	33	+14	50
8	JK Tabasalu	32	−39	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	33	−17	30
10	Legion	32	−88	13