JK Tabasalu v Luunja prediction · Esiliiga B

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:09

JK Tabasalu 1–2 Luunja LUUNJA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Luunja win~~54%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.326

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.491

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Luunja win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: Luunja was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 27–20–53
15′Much as we predicted: Luunja was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 27–22–51
33′30′ and it is 1–0: R. Riigov on the scoresheet for JK Tabasalu. 1–0 · 53–24–24
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Luunja win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' JK Tabasalu win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Luunja win 24%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Luunja win: 54% at kick-off, 49% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Luunja win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was JK Tabasalu win 27%)
40′30′ and it is 1–0: R. Riigov on the scoresheet for JK Tabasalu. 1–0 · 54–25–21
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Luunja win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' JK Tabasalu win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Luunja win 24%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Luunja win: 54% at kick-off, 49% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Luunja win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was JK Tabasalu win 27%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Luunja win: 54% at kick-off, 21% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' JK Tabasalu win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Luunja win 21%)
45′HALF-TIME JK Tabasalu 1–0 Luunja
46′SECOND HALF JK Tabasalu 1–0 Luunja
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' JK Tabasalu 1–1 Luunja
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' JK Tabasalu 1–2 Luunja
76′🟥 RED CARD · 76' Luunja
FTFULL TIME JK Tabasalu 1–2 Luunja
FTJK Tabasalu 1–2 Luunja · Luunja win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

JK Tabasalu win28%

Draw18%

Luunja win54%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 10:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

JK Tabasalu

Luunja

22Days since last match20

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Luunja	29	+11	46
8	JK Tabasalu	30	−37	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · luunja winPublished 11 Oct 10:36

54% The market43%

Us54%

~~Market~~43%

We make Luunja a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · luunja win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
JK Tabasalu win	28%	35%	−7
Draw	18%	21%	−3
Luunja win	54%	43%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	75%	76%	−1
Both teams to score	71%	75%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	89%	90%	0
Over 3.5 goals	55%	58%	−2
JK Tabasalu or draw	46%	57%	−10
JK Tabasalu clean sheet	10%	–	–
Luunja clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.1%

0123450 5.2 5.2 4.0 2.4 1 3.8 6.7 8.1 6.2 3.7 2 2.6 5.8 6.6 5.0 3.0 3 3.2 3.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+JK Tabasalu down, Luunja across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 517 Esiliiga B matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Esiliiga B matches have gone over 2.5 in 80.4% of games this season, across 153 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 5.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

JK Tabasalu at home: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Luunja away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for JK Tabasalu, 2.33 for Luunja. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~5.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~JKT 3–2 LUU · LUU 1–3 JKT · LUU 4–3 JKT

Form · last six in Esiliiga B

JK TABASALU

LLWLDL0–6 · 0–4 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 1–1 · 2–3

LUUNJA

LLLWLL2–3 · 2–5 · 2–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Narva U21	30	+35	63
2	Levadia U19	32	+28	62
3	Johvi Phoenix	30	+3	54
4	Tulevik	32	+18	50
5	Tartu Kalev	31	+12	47
6	Parnu JK Vaprus U21	30	+33	46
7	Luunja	29	+11	46
8	JK Tabasalu	30	−37	33
9	Tallinna Kalev II	31	−15	29
10	Legion	31	−88	12