Viimsi v Flora II prediction · Esiliiga A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ViimsiDrawFlora II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Viimsi 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Viimsi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Viimsi 56%, draw 21%, Flora II 23%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Viimsi v Flora IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Viimsi win56%

Draw21%

Flora II win23%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueViimsi Staadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Viimsi

Flora II

7Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Oct · Esiliiga A

Last match: 22 Oct · Esiliiga A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Viimsi	33	+29	57
3	Flora II	32	+19	51

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · viimsi winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

56% The market56%

Us56%

~~Market~~56%

We make Viimsi a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Viimsi v Flora II~~2.01 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 3 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 57 v 51~~2 v 3

~~The market · Viimsi win~~56% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Viimsi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Viimsi win	56%	56%	0
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Flora II win	23%	23%	0
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Viimsi or draw	77%	77%	0
Viimsi clean sheet	31%	–	–
Flora II clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 4.0 5.4 3.0 1 8.7 9.3 5.7 2.3 2 8.2 9.4 5.6 2.3 3 5.5 6.3 3.7 4 2.8 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Viimsi down, Flora II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,035 Esiliiga A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga A matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 160 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Viimsi at home: 2.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Flora II away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.01 goals for Viimsi, 1.19 for Flora II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FLO 2–1 VII · FLO 0–4 VII · VII 2–1 FLO · VII 2–0 FLO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 3 Sept

VIIMSI

LWLLWW1–2 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–0

FLORA II

LWLDLW2–6 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	34	+55	74
2	Viimsi	33	+29	57
3	Flora II	32	+19	51
4	FCI Levadia II	32	+8	50
5	Elva	32	−1	49
6	Maardu	30	−12	43
7	Tallinna Kalev	32	−6	37
8	Nõmme United II	33	−15	36
9	FC Tallinn	33	−35	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	33	−42	24