Tartu Welco v Tallinna Kalev prediction · Esiliiga A

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 19:31

Tartu Welco 3–2 Tallinna Kalev TARTU WELCO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tartu Welco win~~66%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.174

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.207

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tartu Welco win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tartu Welco 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–16–18
1′KICK-OFF Tartu Welco v Tallinna Kalev
10′A goal for Tartu Welco on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–11–7
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Tartu Welco 1–0 Tallinna Kalev
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Tartu Welco win: 66% at kick-off, 82% now
11′We said Tartu Welco at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–11–7
30′The goal count is tracking the 4.1 we expected. 1–0 · 81–13–6
42′Tartu Welco score on 41′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–4–1
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Tartu Welco 2–0 Tallinna Kalev
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Tartu Welco win: 66% at kick-off, 94% now
43′We said Tartu Welco at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′HALF-TIME Tartu Welco 2–0 Tallinna Kalev
46′42′: R. Kala on the scoresheet for Tartu Welco, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
46′SECOND HALF Tartu Welco 2–0 Tallinna Kalev
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Tartu Welco win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
61′Tartu Welco find the net on 61′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–0–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Tartu Welco 3–0 Tallinna Kalev
62′We said Tartu Welco at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
65′A goal for Tallinna Kalev on 65′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Tartu Welco 3–1 Tallinna Kalev
75′Tallinna Kalev score on 75′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 86–12–1
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Tartu Welco 3–2 Tallinna Kalev
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Tartu Welco win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
76′We said Tartu Welco at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 3–2 · 87–12–1
77′5 goals already, more than the 4.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 87–11–1
81′We said Tartu Welco at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 3–2 · 90–9–1
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Tartu Welco win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME Tartu Welco 3–2 Tallinna Kalev
FTTartu Welco 3–2 Tallinna Kalev · Tartu Welco win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tartu Welco are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tartu Welco 66%, draw 16%, Tallinna Kalev 18%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Tartu Welco v Tallinna KalevBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Tartu Welco win66%

Draw16%

Tallinna Kalev win18%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueHolm Jalgpallipark

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tartu Welco

Tallinna Kalev

5Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Esiliiga A

Last match: 19 Oct · Esiliiga A

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tartu welco winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

66% The market63%

Us66%

~~Market~~63%

We make Tartu Welco a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tartu Welco v Tallinna Kalev~~2.75 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 71 v 37~~1 v 7

~~The market · Tartu Welco win~~63% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tartu Welco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tartu Welco win	66%	63%	+3
Draw	16%	19%	−3
Tallinna Kalev win	18%	18%	0
Over 2.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Both teams to score	69%	69%	0
Over 1.5 goals	91%	89%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	58%	57%	+1
Tartu Welco or draw	82%	82%	0
Tartu Welco clean sheet	26%	–	–
Tallinna Kalev clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.6 1 4.9 6.0 4.3 2 6.2 8.2 5.6 2.6 3 5.5 7.3 5.0 2.3 4 3.8 5.0 3.4 5 2.2 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Tartu Welco down, Tallinna Kalev across0–5 goals a side shown (92.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,033 Esiliiga A matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga A matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.9% of games this season, across 158 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.86 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tartu Welco at home: 3.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Tallinna Kalev away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.75 goals for Tartu Welco, 1.37 for Tallinna Kalev. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.86

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~TAL 1–1 TAR · TAL 2–0 TAR · TAR 3–0 TAL · TAR 0–4 TAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 29 Aug

TARTU WELCO

DWWWWW0–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 7–0 · 4–3

TALLINNA KALEV

LDLDLL0–5 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	33	+54	71
2	Viimsi	33	+29	57
3	Flora II	32	+19	51
4	FCI Levadia II	32	+8	50
5	Elva	32	−1	49
6	Maardu	30	−12	43
7	Tallinna Kalev	31	−5	37
8	Nõmme United II	33	−15	36
9	FC Tallinn	33	−35	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	33	−42	24