Tartu Welco v Nõmme United II prediction · Esiliiga A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:06

Tartu Welco 4–3 Nõmme United II TARTU WELCO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tartu Welco win~~71%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.124

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.180

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tartu Welco win at 71%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Tartu Welco 71% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 71–15–14
1′KICK-OFF Tartu Welco v Nõmme United II
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Tartu Welco win: 71% at kick-off, 61% now
38′Tartu Welco score on 38′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 84–11–4
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Tartu Welco 1–0 Nõmme United II
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Tartu Welco win: 71% at kick-off, 84% now
39′We said Tartu Welco at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
45′HALF-TIME Tartu Welco 1–0 Nõmme United II
46′Nõmme United II find the net on 46′. 1–1. 1–1 · 57–27–16
46′SECOND HALF Tartu Welco 1–0 Nõmme United II
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Tartu Welco 1–1 Nõmme United II
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Tartu Welco win: 71% at kick-off, 57% now
47′We said Tartu Welco at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 56%. 1–1 · 56–28–16
48′The goal count is tracking the 4.1 we expected. 1–1 · 56–28–16
49′A goal for Tartu Welco on 49′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 84–12–4
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Tartu Welco 2–1 Nõmme United II
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Tartu Welco win: 71% at kick-off, 84% now
58′Tartu Welco score on 58′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
58′We said Tartu Welco at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–1 · 97–3–0
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Tartu Welco 3–1 Nõmme United II
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Tartu Welco win: 71% at kick-off, 97% now
68′Tartu Welco find the net on 68′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
68′We said Tartu Welco at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Tartu Welco 4–1 Nõmme United II
69′5 goals already, more than the 4.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
72′PENALTY MISSED · 72' Nõmme United II
74′Tartu Welco ahead on 79′ through E. Malki. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
78′E. Malki scores for Tartu Welco on 79′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Tartu Welco 4–2 Nõmme United II
80′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.1 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 99–1–0
89′Nõmme United II score on 89′ to make it 4–3. 4–3 · 96–4–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Tartu Welco 4–3 Nõmme United II
90′7 goals already, more than the 4.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 96–4–0
FTFULL TIME Tartu Welco 4–3 Nõmme United II
FTTartu Welco 4–3 Nõmme United II · Tartu Welco win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tartu Welco are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tartu Welco 71%, draw 15%, Nõmme United II 14%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Tartu Welco v Nõmme United IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tartu Welco win71%

Draw15%

Nõmme United II win14%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 33

VenueHolm Jalgpallipark

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tartu Welco

Nõmme United II

3Days since last match9

Last match: 15 Oct · Esiliiga A

Last match: 9 Oct · Esiliiga A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tartu welco winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

71% The market65%

Us71%

~~Market~~65%

We make Tartu Welco a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tartu Welco v Nõmme United II~~2.90 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 3 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 68 v 36~~1 v 8

~~The market · Tartu Welco win~~65% · ours 71%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tartu Welco win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 71% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tartu Welco win	71%	65%	+6
Draw	15%	18%	−3
Nõmme United II win	14%	17%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	77%	78%	−1
Both teams to score	65%	70%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	91%	91%	0
Over 3.5 goals	58%	61%	−3
Tartu Welco or draw	86%	83%	+3
Tartu Welco clean sheet	30%	–	–
Nõmme United II clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.4 1 5.2 5.7 3.6 2 6.9 8.1 5.0 2.1 3 6.5 7.6 4.6 4 4.7 5.5 3.3 5 2.8 3.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Tartu Welco down, Nõmme United II across0–5 goals a side shown (91.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,028 Esiliiga A matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga A matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 153 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 4.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tartu Welco at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Nõmme United II away: 1.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.90 goals for Tartu Welco, 1.21 for Nõmme United II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NOM 2–1 TAR · TAR 5–2 NOM · NOM 1–3 TAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 3 Sept

TARTU WELCO

DDWWWW1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 7–0

NÕMME UNITED II

LLWWWL0–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	32	+53	68
2	Viimsi	32	+26	54
3	Flora II	31	+18	48
4	Elva	31	−1	48
5	FCI Levadia II	31	+7	47
6	Maardu	30	−12	43
7	Tallinna Kalev	30	−4	37
8	Nõmme United II	31	−13	36
9	FC Tallinn	32	−32	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	32	−42	23