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Tartu Welco v Elva

Tartu Welco

4–0Full time

Elva

Esiliiga A · FRI 9 OCT · Holm Jalgpallipark

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 20:01

Tartu Welco 4–0 Elva TARTU WELCO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tartu Welco win~~57%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.282

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.384

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tartu Welco win at 57%.
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Tartu Welco 1–0 Elva
45′HALF-TIME Tartu Welco 1–0 Elva
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Tartu Welco 2–0 Elva
46′SECOND HALF Tartu Welco 2–0 Elva
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Tartu Welco 3–0 Elva
69′⚽ GOAL · 44' Tartu Welco 3–0 Elva · U. Malki
69′⚽ GOAL · 46' Tartu Welco 3–0 Elva
69′⚽ GOAL · 66' Tartu Welco 3–0 Elva
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Tartu Welco 4–0 Elva
FTTartu Welco 4–0 Elva · Tartu Welco win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tartu Welco win57%

Draw21%

Elva win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:30

Venue · Holm Jalgpallipark

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tartu welco winPublished 9 Oct 17:35

57% The market49%

Us57%

~~Market~~49%

We make Tartu Welco a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · tartu welco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 57% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tartu Welco win	57%	49%	+7
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Elva win	23%	27%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	62%	66%	−4
Both teams to score	60%	66%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	82%	84%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	46%	−6
Tartu Welco or draw	77%	73%	+4
Tartu Welco clean sheet	31%	–	–
Elva clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.9 5.2 2.9 1 8.5 9.2 5.7 2.3 2 8.1 9.5 5.6 2.3 3 5.5 6.4 3.8 4 2.8 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tartu Welco down, Elva across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,022 Esiliiga A matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Esiliiga A matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.7% of games this season, across 147 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 3.29 goals a meeting; 9 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tartu Welco at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Elva away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Tartu Welco, 1.20 for Elva. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.29

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 14

~~Both scored~~8 of 14

~~Last meetings~~ELV 2–1 TAR · ELV 0–2 TAR · TAR 3–3 ELV · TAR 3–2 ELV

Form · last six in Esiliiga A

TARTU WELCO

WLDDWW4–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–0

ELVA

DWWLWD0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	30	+42	62
2	Viimsi	30	+25	50
3	Flora II	30	+19	48
4	Elva	30	+3	48
5	FCI Levadia II	29	+5	41
6	Maardu	27	−10	41
7	Tallinna Kalev	29	−3	37
8	Nõmme United II	30	−12	36
9	FC Tallinn	29	−28	29
10	Nõmme Kalju II	30	−41	22