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Tallinna Kalev v Viimsi

Tallinna Kalev

1–2Full time

Viimsi

Esiliiga A · SAT 10 OCT · Kadrioru Staadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Tallinna Kalev 1–2 Viimsi VIIMSI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Viimsi win~~55%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.301

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.489

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Viimsi win at 55%.
1′KICK-OFF Tallinna Kalev v Viimsi
2′Much as we predicted: Viimsi was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 23–23–55
42′Viimsi find the net on 43′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–16–78
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Tallinna Kalev 0–1 Viimsi
42′⚽ GOAL · 43' Tallinna Kalev 0–1 Viimsi
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Viimsi win: 55% at kick-off, 78% now
45′HALF-TIME Tallinna Kalev 0–1 Viimsi
48′We published Viimsi at 55%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 5–16–79
48′SECOND HALF Tallinna Kalev 0–1 Viimsi
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Tallinna Kalev 1–1 Viimsi · R. Laidvee
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Tallinna Kalev 1–1 Viimsi
66′⚽ GOAL · 67' Tallinna Kalev 1–2 Viimsi
69′67′ and it is 1–2: D. Ekharts on the scoresheet for Viimsi. 1–2 · 2–14–84
87′⚽ GOAL · 43' Tallinna Kalev 1–2 Viimsi · R. Laidvee
87′⚽ GOAL · 57' Tallinna Kalev 1–2 Viimsi · D. Sal-Al-Saller
87′⚽ GOAL · 67' Tallinna Kalev 1–2 Viimsi · D. Ekharts
90′We published Viimsi at 55%. Our model now makes it 100%. 1–2 · 0–0–100
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Viimsi win: 55% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Tallinna Kalev 1–2 Viimsi
FTTallinna Kalev 1–2 Viimsi · Viimsi win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Tallinna Kalev win23%

Draw21%

Viimsi win55%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Kadrioru Staadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · viimsi winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

55% The market43%

Us55%

~~Market~~43%

We make Viimsi a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · viimsi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tallinna Kalev win	23%	33%	−10
Draw	21%	24%	−2
Viimsi win	55%	43%	+12
Over 2.5 goals	58%	67%	−9
Both teams to score	56%	68%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	80%	85%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	36%	48%	−12
Tallinna Kalev or draw	45%	57%	−12
Tallinna Kalev clean sheet	16%	–	–
Viimsi clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.7 9.7 8.6 5.5 2.7 1 6.0 9.8 9.5 6.0 2.9 2 3.2 5.8 5.4 3.4 3 2.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tallinna Kalev down, Viimsi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,024 Esiliiga A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Esiliiga A matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 149 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tallinna Kalev at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Viimsi away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Tallinna Kalev, 1.90 for Viimsi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~VII 1–2 TAL · TAL 0–3 VII · VII 2–0 TAL

Form · last six in Esiliiga A

TALLINNA KALEV

WLLDLD3–0 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

VIIMSI

WWLWLL4–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	31	+46	65
2	Viimsi	30	+25	50
3	Flora II	30	+19	48
4	Elva	31	−1	48
5	FCI Levadia II	30	+6	44
6	Maardu	27	−10	41
7	Tallinna Kalev	29	−3	37
8	Nõmme United II	31	−13	36
9	FC Tallinn	29	−28	29
10	Nõmme Kalju II	30	−41	22