Tallinna Kalev v Nõmme Kalju II prediction · Esiliiga A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Tallinna KalevDrawNõmme Kalju II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tallinna Kalev 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tallinna Kalev are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tallinna Kalev 61%, draw 18%, Nõmme Kalju II 21%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Tallinna Kalev v Nõmme Kalju IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Tallinna Kalev win61%

Draw18%

Nõmme Kalju II win21%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueKadrioru Staadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tallinna Kalev

Nõmme Kalju II

6Days since last match5

Last match: 23 Oct · Esiliiga A

Last match: 24 Oct · Esiliiga A

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Tallinna Kalev	32	−6	37
10	Nõmme Kalju II	34	−43	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tallinna kalev winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Tallinna Kalev a 61% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.3, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tallinna Kalev v Nõmme Kalju II~~2.39 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 37 v 24~~8 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tallinna Kalev win

Published at 60%, 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tallinna Kalev win	61%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Nõmme Kalju II win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Tallinna Kalev or draw	79%	–	–
Tallinna Kalev clean sheet	27%	–	–
Nõmme Kalju II clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 2.3 3.7 2.3 1 6.2 7.4 5.1 2.3 2 6.9 8.9 5.9 2.7 3 5.4 7.0 4.6 2.1 4 3.3 4.2 2.8 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Tallinna Kalev down, Nõmme Kalju II across0–5 goals a side shown (95.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,035 Esiliiga A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga A matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 160 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 4.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tallinna Kalev at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Nõmme Kalju II away: 0.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.39 goals for Tallinna Kalev, 1.34 for Nõmme Kalju II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NOM 0–3 TAL · TAL 5–1 NOM · NOM 0–4 TAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 5 Sept

TALLINNA KALEV

DLDLLL1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–3

NÕMME KALJU II

LLLLDL1–5 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	34	+55	74
2	Viimsi	33	+29	57
3	Flora II	32	+19	51
4	FCI Levadia II	32	+8	50
5	Elva	32	−1	49
6	Maardu	30	−12	43
7	FC Tallinn	34	−34	38
8	Tallinna Kalev	32	−6	37
9	Nõmme United II	33	−15	36
10	Nõmme Kalju II	34	−43	24