Tallinna Kalev v FCI Levadia II prediction · Esiliiga A

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 18:30

Tallinna Kalev 1–2 FCI Levadia II FCI LEVADIA II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FCI Levadia II win~~40%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.553

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.616

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FCI Levadia II win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: FCI Levadia II was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 39–21–40
1′KICK-OFF Tallinna Kalev v FCI Levadia II
40′A goal for Tallinna Kalev on 40′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–22–14
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Tallinna Kalev 1–0 FCI Levadia II
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' FCI Levadia II win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Tallinna Kalev win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was FCI Levadia II win 36%)
41′We said FCI Levadia II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 65–22–14
45′HALF-TIME Tallinna Kalev 1–0 FCI Levadia II
46′SECOND HALF Tallinna Kalev 1–0 FCI Levadia II
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' FCI Levadia II win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
55′FCI Levadia II score on 54′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 31–37–32
55′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 1–1 · 31–37–32
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Tallinna Kalev 1–1 FCI Levadia II
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' FCI Levadia II win: 40% at kick-off, 32% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Tallinna Kalev win 68%)
63′We said FCI Levadia II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–44–28
70′We said FCI Levadia II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–52–24
73′FCI Levadia II find the net on 72′. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–18–78
73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Tallinna Kalev 1–2 FCI Levadia II
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' FCI Levadia II win: 40% at kick-off, 78% now
73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' FCI Levadia II win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 54%)
74′We published FCI Levadia II at 40%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–2 · 3–18–79
75′We published FCI Levadia II at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' FCI Levadia II win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
80′We published FCI Levadia II at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
84′We published FCI Levadia II at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' FCI Levadia II win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
91′We published FCI Levadia II at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Tallinna Kalev 1–2 FCI Levadia II
FTTallinna Kalev 1–2 FCI Levadia II · FCI Levadia II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FCI Levadia II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Tallinna Kalev 39%, draw 21%, FCI Levadia II 40%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Tallinna Kalev v FCI Levadia IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Tallinna Kalev win39%

Draw21%

FCI Levadia II win40%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueKadrioru Staadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tallinna Kalev

FCI Levadia II

9Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Esiliiga A

Last match: 14 Oct · Esiliiga A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	FCI Levadia II	31	+7	47
7	Tallinna Kalev	30	−4	37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fci levadia ii winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make FCI Levadia II a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tallinna Kalev v FCI Levadia II~~1.84 – 1.88

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 24 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 37 v 47~~7 v 5

~~The market · FCI Levadia II win~~37% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FCI Levadia II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tallinna Kalev win	39%	40%	−1
Draw	21%	23%	−2
FCI Levadia II win	40%	37%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	71%	75%	−4
Both teams to score	70%	75%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	88%	90%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Tallinna Kalev or draw	60%	63%	−3
Tallinna Kalev clean sheet	16%	–	–
FCI Levadia II clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.1%

0123450 2.3 5.0 4.3 2.7 1 4.9 8.1 7.6 4.8 2.3 2 4.2 7.5 6.9 4.3 2.1 3 2.6 4.7 4.3 2.7 4 2.2 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tallinna Kalev down, FCI Levadia II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,030 Esiliiga A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga A matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.3% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.83 goals a meeting; 6 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tallinna Kalev at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). FCI Levadia II away: 2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Tallinna Kalev, 1.88 for FCI Levadia II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.83

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FCI 3–2 TAL · TAL 1–2 FCI · FCI 3–2 TAL · TAL 2–2 FCI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 24 Aug

TALLINNA KALEV

LLDLDL1–3 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2

FCI LEVADIA II

LWDWWW2–4 · 6–2 · 0–0 · 5–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	33	+54	71
2	Viimsi	32	+26	54
3	Elva	32	−1	49
4	Flora II	31	+18	48
5	FCI Levadia II	31	+7	47
6	Maardu	30	−12	43
7	Tallinna Kalev	30	−4	37
8	Nõmme United II	32	−14	36
9	FC Tallinn	32	−32	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	33	−42	24