Nõmme Kalju II v FC Tallinn prediction · Esiliiga A

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 13:21

Nõmme Kalju II 1–2 FC Tallinn FC TALLINN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Tallinn win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.549

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.522

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Tallinn win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Tallinn was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 38–22–40
1′KICK-OFF Nõmme Kalju II v FC Tallinn
17′FC Tallinn find the net on 16′. 0–0 · 36–25–38
17′We published FC Tallinn at 40%. Our model now makes it 64%. 0–1 · 16–20–64
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Nõmme Kalju II 0–1 FC Tallinn
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' FC Tallinn win: 40% at kick-off, 64% now
25′We published FC Tallinn at 40%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–1 · 15–20–65
28′We published FC Tallinn at 40%. Our model now makes it 86%. 0–2 · 5–10–86
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Nõmme Kalju II 0–2 FC Tallinn
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' FC Tallinn win: 40% at kick-off, 86% now
29′FC Tallinn find the net on 29′. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–10–86
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Nõmme Kalju II 1–2 FC Tallinn
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' FC Tallinn win: 40% at kick-off, 67% now
43′A goal for Nõmme Kalju II on 42′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 11–21–68
45′HALF-TIME Nõmme Kalju II 1–2 FC Tallinn
45′SECOND HALF Nõmme Kalju II 1–2 FC Tallinn
52′We published FC Tallinn at 40%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–2 · 9–21–70
65′We published FC Tallinn at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–2 · 5–20–75
71′Goals are coming at about the 3.3 we expected. 1–2 · 4–18–78
73′We published FC Tallinn at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' FC Tallinn win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
84′We published FC Tallinn at 40%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–2 · 1–9–91
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' FC Tallinn win: 40% at kick-off, 91% now
90′We published FC Tallinn at 40%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
94′Full time, 1–2. We called FC Tallinn at 40% — that one lands. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Nõmme Kalju II 1–2 FC Tallinn
FTNõmme Kalju II 1–2 FC Tallinn · FC Tallinn win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FC Tallinn just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Nõmme Kalju II 38%, draw 22%, FC Tallinn 40%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Nõmme Kalju II v FC TallinnBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Nõmme Kalju II win38%

Draw22%

FC Tallinn win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 34

VenueHiiu Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nõmme Kalju II

FC Tallinn

6Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Esiliiga A

Last match: 19 Oct · Esiliiga A

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	FC Tallinn	33	−35	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	33	−42	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc tallinn winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make FC Tallinn a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nõmme Kalju II v FC Tallinn~~1.64 – 1.70

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 6 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 24 v 35~~10 v 9

~~The market · FC Tallinn win~~41% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Tallinn win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nõmme Kalju II win	38%	35%	+3
Draw	22%	23%	−1
FC Tallinn win	40%	41%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	64%	72%	−8
Both teams to score	64%	72%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	84%	88%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	43%	52%	−9
Nõmme Kalju II or draw	60%	59%	+1
Nõmme Kalju II clean sheet	19%	–	–
FC Tallinn clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 6.5 5.2 2.9 1 6.4 9.4 8.2 4.6 2.0 2 4.8 7.9 6.6 3.8 3 2.7 4.3 3.6 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nõmme Kalju II down, FC Tallinn across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,034 Esiliiga A matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga A matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.1% of games this season, across 159 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 4.57 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nõmme Kalju II at home: 1.00 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Tallinn away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Nõmme Kalju II, 1.70 for FC Tallinn. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.57

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~FCT 0–2 NOM · NOM 1–3 FCT · FCT 6–3 NOM · FCT 2–1 NOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 6 Sept

NÕMME KALJU II

LLLLLD0–1 · 1–5 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 0–0

FC TALLINN

LDWLL1–5 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–7 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	34	+55	74
2	Viimsi	33	+29	57
3	Flora II	32	+19	51
4	FCI Levadia II	32	+8	50
5	Elva	32	−1	49
6	Maardu	30	−12	43
7	Tallinna Kalev	32	−6	37
8	Nõmme United II	33	−15	36
9	FC Tallinn	33	−35	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	33	−42	24