Nõmme Kalju II v Elva prediction · Esiliiga A

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:06

Nõmme Kalju II 0–0 Elva ELVA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Elva win~~52%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.959

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.071

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Elva win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Elva 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 26–22–52
1′KICK-OFF Nõmme Kalju II v Elva
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Elva win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
45′SECOND HALF Nõmme Kalju II 0–0 Elva
46′HALF-TIME Nõmme Kalju II 0–0 Elva
48′We said Elva at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 23–36–40
50′We said Elva at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 23–38–39
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.2 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 22–41–37
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Elva win 37%)
60′We said Elva at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 21–45–34
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Elva win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
68′We said Elva at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 18–53–29
74′We said Elva at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 15–61–24
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Elva win: 52% at kick-off, 21% now
78′We said Elva at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 12–68–19
82′We said Elva at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 9–77–14
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Elva win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
86′We said Elva at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 6–85–9
92′We said Elva at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 3–93–4
93′0–0 at the end. Our 52% on Elva misses, and the record keeps it. 0–0 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Nõmme Kalju II 0–0 Elva
FTNõmme Kalju II 0–0 Elva · Elva win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Elva are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nõmme Kalju II 26%, draw 21%, Elva 52%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Nõmme Kalju II v ElvaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nõmme Kalju II win26%

Draw21%

Elva win52%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 33

VenueHiiu Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nõmme Kalju II

Elva

4Days since last match9

Last match: 14 Oct · Esiliiga A

Last match: 9 Oct · Esiliiga A

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Elva	31	−1	48
10	Nõmme Kalju II	32	−42	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · elva winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market62%

Us52%

~~Market~~62%

We make Elva a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nõmme Kalju II v Elva~~1.27 – 1.89

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 48~~10 v 4

~~The market · Elva win~~62% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Elva win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nõmme Kalju II win	26%	19%	+7
Draw	21%	19%	+2
Elva win	52%	62%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	61%	71%	−10
Both teams to score	60%	65%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	81%	86%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	39%	51%	−12
Nõmme Kalju II or draw	48%	38%	+10
Nõmme Kalju II clean sheet	16%	–	–
Elva clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.1 8.6 7.6 4.8 2.3 1 5.9 9.6 9.3 5.8 2.8 2 3.5 6.3 5.9 3.7 3 2.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nõmme Kalju II down, Elva across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,028 Esiliiga A matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga A matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.6% of games this season, across 153 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.71 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nõmme Kalju II at home: 1.00 scored, 4.00 conceded a game (last 6). Elva away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Nõmme Kalju II, 1.89 for Elva. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.71

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ELV 1–0 NOM · NOM 2–2 ELV · ELV 2–4 NOM · ELV 0–1 NOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 29 Aug

NÕMME KALJU II

WLLLLL2–0 · 0–1 · 1–5 · 0–3 · 2–3 · 0–1

ELVA

WWLWDL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	32	+53	68
2	Viimsi	32	+26	54
3	Flora II	31	+18	48
4	Elva	31	−1	48
5	FCI Levadia II	31	+7	47
6	Maardu	30	−12	43
7	Tallinna Kalev	30	−4	37
8	Nõmme United II	31	−13	36
9	FC Tallinn	32	−32	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	32	−42	23