Flora II v Tartu Welco prediction · Esiliiga A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Flora IIDrawTartu Welco

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Tartu Welco 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tartu Welco are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Flora II 31%, draw 19%, Tartu Welco 50%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Flora II v Tartu WelcoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Flora II win31%

Draw19%

Tartu Welco win50%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 35

VenueSportland Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Flora II

Tartu Welco

9Days since last match8

Last match: 22 Oct · Esiliiga A

Last match: 23 Oct · Esiliiga A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tartu welco winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Tartu Welco a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–2.4, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Flora II v Tartu Welco~~1.82 – 2.37

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 51 v 74~~3 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Flora II win	31%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Tartu Welco win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	74%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	60%	–	–
Flora II or draw	50%	–	–
Flora II clean sheet	10%	–	–
Tartu Welco clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.5%

0123450 4.0 4.3 3.4 2.0 1 3.2 6.4 7.5 5.8 3.5 2 2.7 5.9 6.7 5.2 3.1 3 3.6 4.1 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Flora II down, Tartu Welco across0–5 goals a side shown (94.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,035 Esiliiga A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga A matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 160 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Flora II at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Tartu Welco away: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Flora II, 2.37 for Tartu Welco. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TAR 2–1 FLO · TAR 3–3 FLO · FLO 1–6 TAR · FLO 1–1 TAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 4 Sept

FLORA II

LWLDLW2–6 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 3–2

TARTU WELCO

WWWWWW3–0 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 7–0 · 4–3 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	34	+55	74
2	Viimsi	33	+29	57
3	Flora II	32	+19	51
4	FCI Levadia II	32	+8	50
5	Elva	32	−1	49
6	Maardu	30	−12	43
7	FC Tallinn	34	−34	38
8	Tallinna Kalev	32	−6	37
9	Nõmme United II	33	−15	36
10	Nõmme Kalju II	34	−43	24