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Flora II v Nõmme United II

Flora II
3–2Full time
Nõmme United II

Esiliiga A · THU 22 OCT · Sportland Arena

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:00
Flora II 3–2 Nõmme United II FLORA II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Flora II win58%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.269
The market’s Brier score0.483

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Flora II win at 58%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Flora II 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–18–24
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Flora II v Nõmme United II
  4. 3′Nõmme United II find the net on 2′. 0–1. 0–1 · 37–21–43
  5. 3′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–1 · 37–21–43
  6. 3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Flora II 0–1 Nõmme United II
  7. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 37% now
  8. 3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Nõmme United II win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Flora II win 57%)
  9. 11′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–21–44
  10. 17′A goal for Flora II on 17′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 55–21–24
  11. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Flora II 1–1 Nõmme United II
  12. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 55% now
  13. 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Flora II win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Nõmme United II win 45%)
  14. 37′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–1 · 50–26–24
  15. 40′Nõmme United II score on 39′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 24–25–51
  16. 40′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–25–51
  17. 40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Flora II 1–2 Nõmme United II
  18. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 24% now
  19. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Nõmme United II win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Flora II win 49%)
  20. 45′HALF-TIME Flora II 1–2 Nõmme United II
  21. 46′SECOND HALF Flora II 1–2 Nõmme United II
  22. 51′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–26–55
  23. 51′Flora II find the net on 51′. 2–2. 2–2 · 45–32–23
  24. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Flora II 2–2 Nõmme United II
  25. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 45% now
  26. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Flora II win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Nõmme United II win 55%)
  27. 52′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 2–2 · 44–33–23
  28. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 38% now
  29. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Flora II win 39%)
  30. 74′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–55–17
  31. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 27% now
  32. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 17% now
  33. 84′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–78–8
  34. 89′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–86–5
  35. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
  36. 93′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–2
  37. FTFULL TIME Flora II 3–2 Nõmme United II
  38. FTFlora II 3–2 Nõmme United II · Flora II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flora II are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Flora II 58%, draw 18%, Nõmme United II 24%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Flora II v Nõmme United IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Flora II win58%
Draw18%
Nõmme United II win24%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 32

VenueSportland Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Flora II

Nõmme United II

12Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Esiliiga A

Last match: 18 Oct · Esiliiga A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Flora II31+1848
8Nõmme United II32−1436

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · flora ii winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off
58% The market44%
Us58%
Market44%

We make Flora II a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Flora II v Nõmme United II2.48 – 1.56
Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 29 AugW2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 48 v 365 v 8
The market · Flora II win44% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 16:29
Our probability · Flora II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Flora II win58%44%+14
Draw18%22%−4
Nõmme United II win24%34%−10
Over 2.5 goals76%78%−2
Both teams to score71%78%−7
Over 1.5 goals90%91%−1
Over 3.5 goals57%63%−6
Flora II or draw76%66%+10
Flora II clean sheet22%––
Nõmme United II clean sheet9%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.2%
0123450 3.1 2.2 1 4.8 6.6 5.2 2.8 2 5.5 8.2 6.3 3.3 3 4.5 6.7 5.2 2.7 4 2.8 4.2 3.2 5 2.2
under 2% 5% 12%+Flora II down, Nõmme United II across0–5 goals a side shown (94.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored3 of 3
Last meetingsNOM 1–1 FLO · NOM 3–3 FLO · FLO 2–2 NOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 29 Aug

FLORA II

WLWLDL5–0 · 2–6 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–2

NÕMME UNITED II

LWWWLL1–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–4

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Tartu Welco33+5471
2Viimsi33+2957
3FCI Levadia II32+850
4Elva32−149
5Flora II31+1848
6Maardu30−1243
7Tallinna Kalev31−537
8Nõmme United II32−1436
9FC Tallinn33−3535
10Nõmme Kalju II33−4224

The competition's standings before kick-off.