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Flora II v Nõmme United II
Flora II
Nõmme United IIEsiliiga A · THU 22 OCT · Sportland Arena
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Flora II win at 58%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Flora II 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–18–24
- 1′KICK-OFF Flora II v Nõmme United II
- 3′Nõmme United II find the net on 2′. 0–1. 0–1 · 37–21–43
- 3′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–1 · 37–21–43
- 3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Flora II 0–1 Nõmme United II
- 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 37% now
- 3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Nõmme United II win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Flora II win 57%)
- 11′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–21–44
- 17′A goal for Flora II on 17′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 55–21–24
- 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Flora II 1–1 Nõmme United II
- 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 55% now
- 17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Flora II win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Nõmme United II win 45%)
- 37′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–1 · 50–26–24
- 40′Nõmme United II score on 39′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 24–25–51
- 40′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–25–51
- 40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Flora II 1–2 Nõmme United II
- 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 24% now
- 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Nõmme United II win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Flora II win 49%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Flora II 1–2 Nõmme United II
- 46′SECOND HALF Flora II 1–2 Nõmme United II
- 51′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–26–55
- 51′Flora II find the net on 51′. 2–2. 2–2 · 45–32–23
- 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Flora II 2–2 Nõmme United II
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 45% now
- 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Flora II win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Nõmme United II win 55%)
- 52′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 2–2 · 44–33–23
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 38% now
- 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Flora II win 39%)
- 74′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–55–17
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 27% now
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 17% now
- 84′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–78–8
- 89′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–86–5
- 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Flora II win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
- 93′We said Flora II at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–94–2
- FTFULL TIME Flora II 3–2 Nõmme United II
- FTFlora II 3–2 Nõmme United II · Flora II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Flora II are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Flora II 58%, draw 18%, Nõmme United II 24%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 71%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off
Flora II win58%
Nõmme United II win24%Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:00
RoundMatchday 32
VenueSportland Arena
Match timeline
All events
Flora IIMIN
Nõmme United IIEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Flora II
Nõmme United II
Last match: 10 Oct · Esiliiga A
Last match: 18 Oct · Esiliiga A
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Flora II a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flora II win | 58% | 44% | +14 |
| Draw | 18% | 22% | −4 |
| Nõmme United II win | 24% | 34% | −10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 71% | 78% | −7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | 91% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 57% | 63% | −6 |
| Flora II or draw | 76% | 66% | +10 |
| Flora II clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
| Nõmme United II clean sheet | 9% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2025Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 29 Aug
FLORA II
NÕMME UNITED II
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 33 | +54 | 71 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 33 | +29 | 57 |
| 3 | FCI Levadia II | 32 | +8 | 50 |
| 4 | Elva | 32 | −1 | 49 |
| 5 | Flora II | 31 | +18 | 48 |
| 6 | Maardu | 30 | −12 | 43 |
| 7 | Tallinna Kalev | 31 | −5 | 37 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 32 | −14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 33 | −35 | 35 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 33 | −42 | 24 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Tartu Welco
Viimsi
FCI Levadia II
Elva
Maardu
Tallinna Kalev
FC Tallinn
Nõmme Kalju II