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Flora II v FC Tallinn

Flora II

1–2Full time

FC Tallinn

Esiliiga A · SAT 10 OCT · Sportland Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:08

Flora II 1–2 FC Tallinn FLORA II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Flora II win~~63%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.079

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.969

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Flora II win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Flora II 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–18–19
1′KICK-OFF Flora II v FC Tallinn
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Flora II win: 63% at kick-off, 52% now
45′We said Flora II at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 51%. 0–0 · 51–30–19
45′HALF-TIME Flora II 0–0 FC Tallinn
46′SECOND HALF Flora II 0–0 FC Tallinn
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Flora II 0–1 FC Tallinn
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Flora II 0–2 FC Tallinn
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Flora II 1–2 FC Tallinn
FTFULL TIME Flora II 1–2 FC Tallinn
FTFlora II 1–2 FC Tallinn · Flora II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Flora II win63%

Draw18%

FC Tallinn win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 10:30

Venue · Sportland Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · flora ii winPublished 10 Oct 10:08

63% The market58%

Us63%

~~Market~~58%

We make Flora II a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · flora ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 58% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Flora II win	63%	58%	+5
Draw	18%	19%	−2
FC Tallinn win	19%	23%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Both teams to score	65%	70%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	88%	89%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	52%	56%	−4
Flora II or draw	81%	77%	+3
Flora II clean sheet	28%	–	–
FC Tallinn clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.9%

0123450 2.2 3.4 2.0 1 6.1 7.1 4.8 2.1 2 7.1 8.9 5.7 2.5 3 5.8 7.2 4.7 2.0 4 3.6 4.5 2.9 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Flora II down, FC Tallinn across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,024 Esiliiga A matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Esiliiga A matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 149 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 3.27 goals a meeting; 9 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Flora II at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Tallinn away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.48 goals for Flora II, 1.30 for FC Tallinn. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.27

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 15

~~Both scored~~7 of 15

~~Last meetings~~FCT 1–0 FLO · FCT 1–3 FLO · FLO 5–0 FCT · FLO 2–4 FCT

Form · last six in Esiliiga A

FLORA II

DWLWLD0–0 · 5–0 · 2–6 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 2–2

FC TALLINN

DLLWLD1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	31	+46	65
2	Viimsi	30	+25	50
3	Flora II	30	+19	48
4	Elva	31	−1	48
5	FCI Levadia II	30	+6	44
6	Maardu	27	−10	41
7	Tallinna Kalev	29	−3	37
8	Nõmme United II	31	−13	36
9	FC Tallinn	29	−28	29
10	Nõmme Kalju II	30	−41	22