Home › Football › Esiliiga A › FCI Levadia II v Nõmme Kalju II
Back
FCI Levadia II v Nõmme Kalju II
FCI Levadia IINõmme Kalju IIEsiliiga A · WED 14 OCT · Maarjamae staadion
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said FCI Levadia II win at 66%.
- 1′KICK-OFF FCI Levadia II v Nõmme Kalju II
- 2′Much as we predicted: FCI Levadia II was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–17–17
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' FCI Levadia II win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
- 44′We said FCI Levadia II at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–27–18
- 45′HALF-TIME FCI Levadia II 0–0 Nõmme Kalju II
- 46′SECOND HALF FCI Levadia II 0–0 Nõmme Kalju II
- 54′We said FCI Levadia II at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–33–18
- 55′We expected about 4.1 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 49–33–18
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' FCI Levadia II win: 66% at kick-off, 46% now
- 60′A goal for FCI Levadia II on 60′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–3
- 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' FCI Levadia II 1–0 Nõmme Kalju II
- 61′We published FCI Levadia II at 66%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–3
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' FCI Levadia II win: 66% at kick-off, 83% now
- 70′We published FCI Levadia II at 66%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' FCI Levadia II win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
- 80′We published FCI Levadia II at 66%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
- 88′We published FCI Levadia II at 66%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' FCI Levadia II win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
- FTFULL TIME FCI Levadia II 1–0 Nõmme Kalju II
- FTFCI Levadia II 1–0 Nõmme Kalju II · FCI Levadia II win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassChelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.
Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.
Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.
Pre-match prediction
Published 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off
FCI Levadia II win66%Nõmme Kalju II win18%Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 17:00
VenueMaarjamae staadion
Match timeline
All events
FCI Levadia IIMINNõmme Kalju IIEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
FCI Levadia II
Nõmme Kalju II
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026Positions of these teams
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | FCI Levadia II | 30 | 6 | 44 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 31 | -41 | 23 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make FCI Levadia II a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.8–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCI Levadia II win | 66% | 76% | −9 |
| Draw | 16% | 14% | +2 |
| Nõmme Kalju II win | 18% | 11% | +7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 77% | 83% | −6 |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | 94% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 58% | 70% | −13 |
| FCI Levadia II or draw | 82% | 89% | −7 |
| FCI Levadia II clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| Nõmme Kalju II clean sheet | 7% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2025Form · last six in Esiliiga A
FCI LEVADIA II
NÕMME KALJU II
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tartu Welco | 31 | 46 | 65 |
| 2 |  Viimsi | 31 | 26 | 53 |
| 3 |  Flora II | 31 | 18 | 48 |
| 4 |  Elva | 31 | -1 | 48 |
| 5 | FCI Levadia II | 30 | 6 | 44 |
| 6 |  Maardu | 29 | -12 | 42 |
| 7 |  Tallinna Kalev | 30 | -4 | 37 |
| 8 |  Nõmme United II | 31 | -13 | 36 |
| 9 |  FC Tallinn | 31 | -25 | 35 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 31 | -41 | 23 |
The competition's standings.