FC Tallinn v Viimsi prediction · Esiliiga A

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

FC Tallinn 0–3 Viimsi VIIMSI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Viimsi win~~65%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.183

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.258

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Viimsi win at 65%.
1′KICK-OFF FC Tallinn v Viimsi
2′Much as we predicted: Viimsi was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 16–20–65
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Viimsi win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
38′We said Viimsi at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 16–30–53
45′HALF-TIME FC Tallinn 0–0 Viimsi
45′SECOND HALF FC Tallinn 0–0 Viimsi
47′We said Viimsi at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 16–35–49
52′We published Viimsi at 65%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 3–13–85
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' FC Tallinn 0–1 Viimsi
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Viimsi win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
53′Viimsi find the net on 52′. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–13–85
70′We published Viimsi at 65%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
70′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–2 · 0–1–99
70′A goal for Viimsi on 70′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' FC Tallinn 0–2 Viimsi
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Viimsi win: 65% at kick-off, 99% now
73′We published Viimsi at 65%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' FC Tallinn 0–3 Viimsi
74′GOAL DISALLOWED · 74' Viimsi
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' FC Tallinn 0–3 Viimsi
86′Viimsi score on 85′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME FC Tallinn 0–3 Viimsi
FTFC Tallinn 0–3 Viimsi · Viimsi win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Viimsi are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Tallinn 16%, draw 19%, Viimsi 65%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on FC Tallinn v ViimsiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

FC Tallinn win16%

Draw19%

Viimsi win65%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 33

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Tallinn

Viimsi

4Days since last match9

Last match: 15 Oct · Esiliiga A

Last match: 10 Oct · Esiliiga A

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Viimsi	32	+26	54
9	FC Tallinn	32	−32	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · viimsi winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 16 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off

65% The market59%

Us65%

~~Market~~59%

We make Viimsi a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Tallinn v Viimsi~~0.90 – 2.11

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 35 v 54~~9 v 2

~~The market · Viimsi win~~59% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Viimsi win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Tallinn win	16%	21%	−5
Draw	19%	21%	−2
Viimsi win	65%	59%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	57%	69%	−12
Both teams to score	51%	65%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	79%	86%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	36%	49%	−13
FC Tallinn or draw	35%	41%	−6
FC Tallinn clean sheet	13%	–	–
Viimsi clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.9%

0123450 4.9 10.9 10.9 7.7 4.2 1 4.9 8.9 9.4 6.6 3.5 2 2.1 4.2 4.3 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Tallinn down, Viimsi across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,030 Esiliiga A matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga A matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.3% of games this season, across 155 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Tallinn at home: 0.50 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Viimsi away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.90 goals for FC Tallinn, 2.11 for Viimsi. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VII 1–2 FCT · FCT 0–2 VII · VII 5–1 FCT · FCT 1–2 VII

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 29 Aug

FC TALLINN

LWLDWL0–2 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–7

VIIMSI

WLWLLW3–1 · 1–2 · 5–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	33	+54	71
2	Viimsi	32	+26	54
3	Elva	32	−1	49
4	Flora II	31	+18	48
5	FCI Levadia II	31	+7	47
6	Maardu	30	−12	43
7	Tallinna Kalev	30	−4	37
8	Nõmme United II	32	−14	36
9	FC Tallinn	32	−32	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	33	−42	24