FC Tallinn v Tartu Welco prediction · Esiliiga A

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 19:30

FC Tallinn 0–7 Tartu Welco TARTU WELCO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tartu Welco win~~63%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.203

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.239

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tartu Welco win at 63%.
1′KICK-OFF FC Tallinn v Tartu Welco
2′Much as we predicted: Tartu Welco was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 18–19–63
4′Tartu Welco find the net on 3′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–11–82
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' FC Tallinn 0–1 Tartu Welco
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Tartu Welco win: 63% at kick-off, 82% now
5′We published Tartu Welco at 63%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 7–11–82
5′We published Tartu Welco at 63%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 2–5–93
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' FC Tallinn 0–2 Tartu Welco
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Tartu Welco win: 63% at kick-off, 93% now
6′A goal for Tartu Welco on 5′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–5–93
20′A red card for FC Tallinn on 20′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–2 · 2–5–94
20′🟥 RED CARD · 20' FC Tallinn
21′Tartu Welco score on 21′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–98
21′We published Tartu Welco at 63%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–3 · 0–1–98
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' FC Tallinn 0–3 Tartu Welco
38′Tartu Welco find the net on 37′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
38′We published Tartu Welco at 63%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' FC Tallinn 0–4 Tartu Welco
39′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
45′HALF-TIME FC Tallinn 0–4 Tartu Welco
46′SECOND HALF FC Tallinn 0–4 Tartu Welco
54′A goal for Tartu Welco on 53′ — 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
54′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' FC Tallinn 0–5 Tartu Welco
64′Tartu Welco score on 64′ to make it 0–6. 0–6 · 0–0–100
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' FC Tallinn 0–6 Tartu Welco
65′6 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–6 · 0–0–100
65′GOAL DISALLOWED · 65' Tartu Welco
78′Tartu Welco score on 78′ to make it 0–6. 0–6 · 0–0–100
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' FC Tallinn 0–6 Tartu Welco
90′Tartu Welco find the net on 90′. 0–7. 0–7 · 0–0–100
90′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 0–7 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' FC Tallinn 0–7 Tartu Welco
FTFULL TIME FC Tallinn 0–7 Tartu Welco
FTFC Tallinn 0–7 Tartu Welco · Tartu Welco win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tartu Welco are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Tallinn 19%, draw 18%, Tartu Welco 63%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on FC Tallinn v Tartu WelcoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

FC Tallinn win19%

Draw18%

Tartu Welco win63%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Tallinn

Tartu Welco

5Days since last match6

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tartu welco winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 11 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

63% The market60%

Us63%

~~Market~~60%

We make Tartu Welco a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Tallinn v Tartu Welco~~1.22 – 2.40

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 35 v 65~~9 v 1

~~The market · Tartu Welco win~~60% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tartu Welco win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Tallinn win	19%	19%	0
Draw	18%	21%	−3
Tartu Welco win	63%	60%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	70%	73%	−3
Both teams to score	63%	69%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	87%	88%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	49%	56%	−7
FC Tallinn or draw	37%	40%	−3
FC Tallinn clean sheet	10%	–	–
Tartu Welco clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.0%

0123450 2.5 6.9 7.7 6.1 3.7 1 3.7 7.5 9.0 7.1 4.3 2.22 2.1 4.8 5.5 4.3 2.6 3 2.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Tallinn down, Tartu Welco across0–5 goals a side shown (95.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,027 Esiliiga A matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga A matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.4% of games this season, across 152 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Tallinn at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Tartu Welco away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for FC Tallinn, 2.40 for Tartu Welco. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TAR 0–2 FCT · TAR 4–0 FCT · FCT 0–2 TAR · TAR 2–2 FCT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 23 Aug

FC TALLINN

LLWLDW1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 2–1

TARTU WELCO

LDDWWW1–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	31	+46	65
2	Viimsi	31	+26	53
3	Flora II	31	+18	48
4	Elva	31	−1	48
5	FCI Levadia II	31	+7	47
6	Maardu	29	−12	42
7	Tallinna Kalev	30	−4	37
8	Nõmme United II	31	−13	36
9	FC Tallinn	31	−25	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	32	−42	23