Elva v FCI Levadia II prediction · Esiliiga A

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ElvaDrawFCI Levadia II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:30

Before kick-off · Match result · FCI Levadia II 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FCI Levadia II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Elva 37%, draw 23%, FCI Levadia II 40%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Elva v FCI Levadia IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Elva win37%

Draw23%

FCI Levadia II win40%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:30

RoundMatchday 34

VenueNike Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Elva

FCI Levadia II

7Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Esiliiga A

Last match: 19 Oct · Esiliiga A

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	FCI Levadia II	32	+8	50
5	Elva	32	−1	49

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fci levadia ii winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 20 Oct 00:11 · locked at kick-off

40% The market36%

Us40%

~~Market~~36%

We make FCI Levadia II a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Elva v FCI Levadia II~~1.49 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 49 v 50~~5 v 4

~~The market · FCI Levadia II win~~36% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FCI Levadia II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Elva win	37%	40%	−3
Draw	23%	24%	−1
FCI Levadia II win	40%	36%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Elva or draw	60%	64%	−4
Elva clean sheet	22%	–	–
FCI Levadia II clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.7 7.9 5.8 3.0 1 7.6 10.5 8.3 4.3 2 5.4 8.0 6.1 3.2 3 2.7 4.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Elva down, FCI Levadia II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,035 Esiliiga A matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Esiliiga A matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 160 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Elva at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FCI Levadia II away: 2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Elva, 1.55 for FCI Levadia II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCI 2–2 ELV · FCI 1–3 ELV · ELV 3–2 FCI · FCI 2–1 ELV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Esiliiga A this season · since 4 Sept

ELVA

WLWDLD1–0 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 0–0

FCI LEVADIA II

WDWWWW6–2 · 0–0 · 5–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tartu Welco	34	+55	74
2	Viimsi	33	+29	57
3	Flora II	32	+19	51
4	FCI Levadia II	32	+8	50
5	Elva	32	−1	49
6	Maardu	30	−12	43
7	Tallinna Kalev	32	−6	37
8	Nõmme United II	33	−15	36
9	FC Tallinn	33	−35	35
10	Nõmme Kalju II	33	−42	24