West Ham W v London City Lionesses W prediction · WSL Cup

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

West Ham W 1–2 London City Lionesses W LONDON CITY LIONESSES W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said London City Lionesses W win~~50%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.375

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.275

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

London City Lionesses W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: West Ham W 28%, draw 22%, London City Lionesses W 50%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on West Ham W v London City Lionesses WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

West Ham W win28%

Draw22%

London City Lionesses W win50%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueChigwell Construction Stadium

Line-ups

West Ham W

London City Lionesses W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

West Ham W

London City Lionesses W

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · FA WSL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

West Ham W

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Picaud

2 Y. Endo

13 E. Nystrom

28 E. Cascarino

15 Y. Tennebo

27 L. Wandeler

8 S. Kumagai

4 O. Siren

77 S. Piubel

20 V. Asseyi

11 K. Gago

Coach · Rita Guarino

Substitutes

25 · M. Walsh

3 · L. Codina

7 · I. Belloumou

10 · K. Zelem

19 · S. Wareing

22 · N. Riesen

23 · F. Morgan

26 · N. Peacock

61 · S. N. Oztas

London City Lionesses W

Formation not confirmed

27 M. Earps

2 J. Fernandez

6 M. Perez

13 E. Linari

97 J. Thomsen

76 R. Kafaji

11 A. Putellas

20 D. Cascarino

17 N. Parris

23 I. Goodwin

19 N. Anyomi

Coach · Eder Maestre

Substitutes

77 · E. Lete

4 · I. Kardinaal

10 · D. van de Donk

14 · F. Godfrey

16 · D. Arques

21 · K. Diani

50 · A. El Bergui

88 · G. Geyoro

99 · C. Henson

Our number · london city lionesses w winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

50% The market57%

Us50%

~~Market~~57%

We make London City Lionesses W a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · West Ham W v London City Lionesses W~~1.26 – 1.78

~~Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept~~W1 D1 L0 · W2 D0 L0

~~The market · London City Lionesses W win~~57% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · London City Lionesses W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
West Ham W win	28%	20%	+8
Draw	22%	23%	−1
London City Lionesses W win	50%	57%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	58%	58%	0
Both teams to score	58%	56%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	36%	37%	−1
West Ham W or draw	50%	43%	+7
West Ham W clean sheet	17%	–	–
London City Lionesses W clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.4 9.2 7.6 4.5 2.0 1 6.7 10.1 9.3 5.5 2.5 2 3.9 6.7 5.8 3.5 3 2.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+West Ham W down, London City Lionesses W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 703 FA WSL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FA WSL matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

West Ham W at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). London City Lionesses W away: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for West Ham W, 1.78 for London City Lionesses W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~WES 2–1 LON · WES 1–1 LON · LON 1–0 WES · LON 1–4 WES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept

WEST HAM W

DW0–0 · 3–1

LONDON CITY LIONESSES W

WW2–0 · 1–0

West Ham W v London City Lionesses W

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

West Ham W

London City Lionesses W

Rest & schedule

West Ham W

London City Lionesses W

The game in numbers

Line-ups

West Ham W

London City Lionesses W

Match statistics

Line-ups

West Ham W

London City Lionesses W

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept