Southampton W v Crystal Palace W prediction · WSL Cup

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

Southampton W 3–2 Crystal Palace W SOUTHAMPTON W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Southampton W win~~39%

~~The market said~~26%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.565

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.842

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Southampton W win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Southampton W v Crystal Palace W
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Southampton W 0–1 Crystal Palace W
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Southampton W win: 39% at kick-off, 17% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Crystal Palace W win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Southampton W win 38%)
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Southampton W 1–1 Crystal Palace W
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Southampton W win: 39% at kick-off, 37% now
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Southampton W 1–2 Crystal Palace W
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Southampton W win: 39% at kick-off, 15% now
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Southampton W 2–2 Crystal Palace W
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Southampton W win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Crystal Palace W win 66%)
45′HALF-TIME Southampton W 3–2 Crystal Palace W
45′SECOND HALF Southampton W 3–2 Crystal Palace W
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Southampton W 3–2 Crystal Palace W
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Southampton W win: 39% at kick-off, 70% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Southampton W win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 38%)
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Southampton W win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Southampton W win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
FTFULL TIME Southampton W 3–2 Crystal Palace W
FTSouthampton W 3–2 Crystal Palace W · Southampton W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Southampton W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Southampton W 39%, draw 24%, Crystal Palace W 37%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Southampton W v Crystal Palace WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Southampton W win39%

Draw24%

Crystal Palace W win37%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueSilverlake Stadium

Line-ups

Southampton W

Crystal Palace W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Southampton W

Crystal Palace W

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · WSL Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · FA WSL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Southampton W

Formation not confirmed

13 A. Santos

23 M. Collett

3 M. Mott

15 N. Murphy

5 A. Goddard

18 F. Jupp

4 M. Bashford

8 C. Peplow

27 S. Rae

7 E. Brazil

9 E. Harries

Coach · Simon Parker

Substitutes

1 · G. Moloney

2 · R. Brown

17 · L. McInnes

12 · M. Edwards

26 · R. Tucker

28 · J. Archibald

Crystal Palace W

Formation not confirmed

30 S. Yanez

12 C. Cosme

3 J. Napier

15 H. Nolan

24 S. Hopcroft

8 M. Sharpe

16 H. Ladd

17 A. Blanchard

11 A. Weerden

10 K. Howat

27 S. O’Brien

Coach · Josanne Potter

Substitutes

56 · C. Erhabor

4 · S. Enge

6 · A. Everett

9 · B. England

19 · A. Larkin

25 · F. Tsunoda

29 · A. Swaby

32 · M. Bartrip

Our number · southampton w winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

39% The market26%

Us39%

~~Market~~26%

We make Southampton W a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 26%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Southampton W v Crystal Palace W~~1.45 – 1.40

~~Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept~~W0 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L0

~~The market · Southampton W win~~26% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Southampton W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Southampton W win	39%	26%	+13
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Crystal Palace W win	37%	46%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	54%	45%	+9
Both teams to score	56%	50%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	77%	69%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	32%	25%	+7
Southampton W or draw	63%	54%	+9
Southampton W clean sheet	25%	–	–
Crystal Palace W clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.4 8.8 5.7 2.7 1 9.1 11.0 8.0 3.8 2 6.1 8.3 5.7 2.7 3 3.0 4.0 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Southampton W down, Crystal Palace W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 668 Women's Championship matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Women's Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Southampton W at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Crystal Palace W away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Southampton W, 1.40 for Crystal Palace W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~5 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SOU 3–1 CRY · CRY 4–4 SOU · SOU 1–2 CRY · CRY 3–4 SOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept

SOUTHAMPTON W

LD1–3 · 1–1

CRYSTAL PALACE W

WW1–0 · 3–0

Southampton W v Crystal Palace W

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Southampton W

Crystal Palace W

Rest & schedule

Southampton W

Crystal Palace W

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Southampton W

Crystal Palace W

Match statistics

Line-ups

Southampton W

Crystal Palace W

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept