Newcastle United W v Sunderland W prediction · WSL Cup

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Newcastle United W 0–1 Sunderland W NEWCASTLE UNITED W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Newcastle United W win~~55%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.954

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.080

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Newcastle United W win at 55%.
2′KICK-OFF Newcastle United W v Sunderland W
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Newcastle United W win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
45′SECOND HALF Newcastle United W 0–0 Sunderland W
46′HALF-TIME Newcastle United W 0–0 Sunderland W
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Newcastle United W 0–1 Sunderland W
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Newcastle United W win: 55% at kick-off, 14% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Sunderland W win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Newcastle United W win 14%)
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Newcastle United W win: 55% at kick-off, 5% now
FTFULL TIME Newcastle United W 0–1 Sunderland W
FTNewcastle United W 0–1 Sunderland W · Newcastle United W win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Newcastle United W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Newcastle United W 55%, draw 22%, Sunderland W 23%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Newcastle United W v Sunderland WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Newcastle United W win55%

Draw22%

Sunderland W win23%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueGateshead International Stadium

Line-ups

Newcastle United W

Sunderland W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Newcastle United W

Sunderland W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · Women's Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Newcastle United W

Formation not confirmed

12 K. Rendell

27 R. McLauchlan

25 A. Mannion

5 J. Purfield

2 C. Wardlaw

16 H. Antonsdottir

19 K. Bradley

26 B. Lumsden

17 M. Thomas

10 M. Lambert

4 J. Nobbs

Coach · Tanya Oxtoby

Substitutes

1 · A. Tamminen

9 · K. McGovern

11 · F. Gregory

15 · H. Nemeth

20 · O. Sevenius

22 · L. Joel

23 · G. Evans

30 · J. Gale

33 · L. Kiernan

Sunderland W

Formation not confirmed

18 N. Schumacher

2 R. Bose

31 C. Paxton

27 B. Westrup

3 M. Corbyn

14 N. Fenton

21 M. Sheva

19 L. Dent

10 K. Kitching

33 E. Parker

8 E. Scarr

Coach · Melanie Reay

Substitutes

1 · F. Stenson

77 · T. Laplacette

6 · T. Bourne

23 · K. Missipo

16 · S. Franssi

9 · E. Hughes

11 · J. Brown

12 · E. Cassap

7 · K. Watson

Our number · newcastle united w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market59%

Us55%

~~Market~~59%

We make Newcastle United W a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Newcastle United W v Sunderland W~~1.80 – 1.04

~~Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept~~W0 D0 L1 · W0 D0 L1

~~The market · Newcastle United W win~~59% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Newcastle United W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newcastle United W win	55%	59%	−4
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Sunderland W win	23%	18%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	36%	−4
Newcastle United W or draw	77%	82%	−5
Newcastle United W clean sheet	36%	–	–
Sunderland W clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%

0123450 5.5 6.7 3.2 1 11.1 10.3 5.6 2 9.4 9.6 5.0 3 5.6 5.7 3.0 4 2.6 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Newcastle United W down, Sunderland W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 668 Women's Championship matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Women's Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Newcastle United W at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sunderland W away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Newcastle United W, 1.04 for Sunderland W. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SUN 1–1 NEW · NEW 3–1 SUN · NEW 1–0 SUN · SUN 1–2 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept

NEWCASTLE UNITED W

L1–3

SUNDERLAND W

L2–4

Newcastle United W v Sunderland W

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Newcastle United W

Sunderland W

Rest & schedule

Newcastle United W

Sunderland W

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Newcastle United W

Sunderland W

Match statistics

Line-ups

Newcastle United W

Sunderland W

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept