Liverpool W v Manchester United W prediction · WSL Cup

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

Liverpool W 3–5 Manchester United W MANCHESTER UNITED W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Manchester United W win~~52%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.352

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.574

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Manchester United W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Liverpool W 24%, draw 24%, Manchester United W 52%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Liverpool W v Manchester United WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Liverpool W win24%

Draw24%

Manchester United W win52%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueSt Helens Stadium

Line-ups

Liverpool W

Manchester United W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Liverpool W

Manchester United W

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · FA WSL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Liverpool W

Formation not confirmed

12 K. Keating

2 L. Parry

4 G. Fisk

23 S. Agrez

16 L. Woodham

8 F. Nagano

14 M. Hobinger

25 A. Bergstrom

87 M. Trueman

26 M. Itamura

13 M. Enderby

Coach · Gareth Taylor

Substitutes

22 · F. Kirby

6 · N. Ramos

7 · C. Kapocs

9 · V. Endemann

11 · B. Olsson

17 · J. Clark

28 · M. Ward

29 · A. Bernabe

36 · Z. Shaw

Manchester United W

Formation not confirmed

25 J. Leitzig

22 S. Hill

4 M. Le Tissier

17 D. Janssen

2 A. Sandberg

15 J. Zigiotti Olme

16 R. Bernal

23 M. Jusu Bah

13 S. Awujo

36 M. Griffiths

24 L. Schuller

Coach · Eva Olid

Substitutes

91 · P. Tullis-Joyce

5 · H. Lundkvist

6 · A. Medina

26 · J. Simpson

20 · H. Miyazawa

8 · J. Park

7 · E. Toone

10 · E. Terland

19 · E. Wangerheim

Our number · manchester united w winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:20 · locked at kick-off

52% The market38%

Us52%

~~Market~~38%

We make Manchester United W a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Liverpool W v Manchester United W~~0.98 – 1.57

~~Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept~~W2 D0 L0 · W2 D0 L0

~~The market · Manchester United W win~~38% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Manchester United W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Liverpool W win	24%	35%	−11
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Manchester United W win	52%	38%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	47%	57%	−10
Both teams to score	48%	60%	−12
Over 1.5 goals	72%	79%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	26%	36%	−10
Liverpool W or draw	48%	62%	−14
Liverpool W clean sheet	21%	–	–
Manchester United W clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.8%

0123450 7.3 12.8 9.6 5.1 2.1 1 8.3 11.2 9.2 4.8 2 3.8 5.8 4.5 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Liverpool W down, Manchester United W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 703 FA WSL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: FA WSL matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Liverpool W at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Manchester United W away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Liverpool W, 1.57 for Manchester United W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAN 1–0 LIV · MAN 3–1 LIV · LIV 0–2 MAN · LIV 3–1 MAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept

LIVERPOOL W

WW4–2 · 4–3

MANCHESTER UNITED W

WW10–1 · 5–1

Liverpool W v Manchester United W

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Liverpool W

Manchester United W

Rest & schedule

Liverpool W

Manchester United W

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Liverpool W

Manchester United W

Match statistics

Line-ups

Liverpool W

Manchester United W

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept