Durham W v Birmingham City W prediction · WSL Cup

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

Durham W 0–5 Birmingham City W BIRMINGHAM CITY W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Birmingham City W win~~57%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.271

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.215

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Birmingham City W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Durham W 22%, draw 21%, Birmingham City W 57%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Durham W v Birmingham City WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Durham W win22%

Draw21%

Birmingham City W win57%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueWolf Competitions Stadium

Line-ups

Durham W

Birmingham City W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Durham W

Birmingham City W

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · WSL Cup

Last match: 17 Oct · FA WSL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Durham W

Formation not confirmed

35 C. Sheppard

2 G. Ayre

5 S. Wilson

15 D. Bradley

3 L. Briggs

24 E. Morran

7 B. Hepple

10 G. Ede

9 L. Watson

23 R. Lowe

22 G. Collinson

Coach · Willie Kirk

Substitutes

13 · A. King

25 · E. Brown

4 · M. McComasky

12 · L. Noble

21 · A. Stobbs

18 · A. Addison

11 · J. Pennock

Birmingham City W

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Thomas

3 M. Levasseur

2 M. Harris

15 R. Holloway

30 N. Herron

19 C. Cornet

14 S. Amano

10 W. Leidhammar

7 Lee Geum-Min

4 J. Rastocle

27 V. Sarri

Coach · Amy Merricks

Substitutes

40 · K. Startup

6 · S. Cooke

18 · R. McKenna

8 · L. Naalsund

57 · L. Jaynes

16 · L. Crosthwaite

22 · O. Hurtre

56 · M. Weaver

52 · R. Molendo-Payne

Our number · birmingham city w winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 21 Oct 04:11 · locked at kick-off

57% The market62%

Us57%

~~Market~~62%

We make Birmingham City W a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Durham W v Birmingham City W~~1.11 – 1.97

~~Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept~~W0 D0 L2 · W0 D0 L2

~~The market · Birmingham City W win~~62% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Birmingham City W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Durham W win	22%	17%	+5
Draw	21%	21%	0
Birmingham City W win	57%	62%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	59%	63%	−4
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	43%	−6
Durham W or draw	43%	38%	+5
Durham W clean sheet	15%	–	–
Birmingham City W clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.4 9.7 8.9 5.8 3.0 1 5.8 9.5 9.5 6.2 3.1 2 2.9 5.5 5.3 3.4 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Durham W down, Birmingham City W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 668 Women's Championship matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Women's Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Durham W at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Birmingham City W away: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Durham W, 1.97 for Birmingham City W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DUR 1–1 BIR · BIR 3–0 DUR · BIR 3–1 DUR · BIR 0–1 DUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept

DURHAM W

LL1–5 · 2–3

BIRMINGHAM CITY W

LL0–2 · 3–4

Durham W v Birmingham City W

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Durham W

Birmingham City W

Rest & schedule

Durham W

Birmingham City W

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Durham W

Birmingham City W

Match statistics

Line-ups

Durham W

Birmingham City W

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept