Charlton Athletic W v Bristol City W prediction · WSL Cup

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 01:30

Charlton Athletic W 2–0 Bristol City W CHARLTON ATHLETIC W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Charlton Athletic W win~~43%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.493

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.551

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Charlton Athletic W are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Charlton Athletic W 43%, draw 24%, Bristol City W 33%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Charlton Athletic W v Bristol City WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Charlton Athletic W win43%

Draw24%

Bristol City W win33%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:30

RoundGroup stage

VenueThe Valley

Line-ups

Charlton Athletic W

Bristol City W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Charlton Athletic W

Bristol City W

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · FA WSL

Last match: 18 Oct · WSL Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Charlton Athletic W

Formation not confirmed

24 A. Koivunen

29 A. Neville

17 K. Skeels

25 L. Waldie

2 E. Mason

10 G. Kenney

14 K. Flannery

9 L. Azzaro

8 C. Humphrey

12 J. Hutton

15 K. Lockwood

Coach · Karen Hills

Substitutes

1 · S. Whitehouse

21 · A. Pedersen

30 · L. Robe

23 · L. Lobato

6 · L. Davidson

11 · L. Fitzgerald

22 · E. van Egmond

16 · C. Korhonen

5 · E. N'Dow

Bristol City W

Formation not confirmed

13 L. Brzykcy

40 N. McDonald

3 G. Lawley

15 O. Wos

20 E. Morgan

24 E. Shore

21 M. Dafeur

7 K. Robinson

45 I. Hebard

19 M. Farrugia

14 E. Bissell

Coach · Charlotte Healy

Substitutes

1 · F. Bentley

12 · A. Apostolakis

23 · B. Aspin

38 · N. Comley

18 · M. Meena

55 · E. Smith

16 · E. Syme

9 · R. Hardy

46 · C. Giddings

Our number · charlton athletic w winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

43% The market40%

Us43%

~~Market~~40%

We make Charlton Athletic W a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Charlton Athletic W v Bristol City W~~1.50 – 1.28

~~Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept~~W0 D0 L2 · W0 D1 L0

~~The market · Charlton Athletic W win~~40% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Charlton Athletic W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Charlton Athletic W win	43%	40%	+3
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Bristol City W win	33%	34%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	52%	56%	−4
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	78%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	35%	−5
Charlton Athletic W or draw	67%	66%	+1
Charlton Athletic W clean sheet	28%	–	–
Bristol City W clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.9 8.7 5.1 2.2 1 10.0 11.1 7.4 3.2 2 7.0 8.7 5.5 2.4 3 3.5 4.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Charlton Athletic W down, Bristol City W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 668 Women's Championship matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Women's Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Charlton Athletic W at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bristol City W away: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Charlton Athletic W, 1.28 for Bristol City W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~BRI 2–1 CHA · CHA 2–0 BRI · BRI 1–1 CHA · CHA 1–2 BRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept

CHARLTON ATHLETIC W

LL0–4 · 0–3

BRISTOL CITY W

D1–1

Charlton Athletic W v Bristol City W

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Charlton Athletic W

Bristol City W

Rest & schedule

Charlton Athletic W

Bristol City W

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Charlton Athletic W

Bristol City W

Match statistics

Line-ups

Charlton Athletic W

Bristol City W

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · WSL Cup this season · since 23 Sept