Bristol City W v Southampton W prediction · WSL Cup

After 90 minutesGraded 19 Oct 01:30

Bristol City W 1–1 Southampton W BRISTOL CITY W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Bristol City W win~~45%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.891

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.819

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 1–1, the score after 90 minutes. Bristol City W won 4–3 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bristol City W win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF Bristol City W v Southampton W
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Bristol City W 0–1 Southampton W
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Bristol City W win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Southampton W win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Bristol City W win 15%)
45′SECOND HALF Bristol City W 0–1 Southampton W
46′HALF-TIME Bristol City W 0–1 Southampton W
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Bristol City W 1–1 Southampton W
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Bristol City W win: 45% at kick-off, 31% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Southampton W win 23%)
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Bristol City W win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Bristol City W win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Bristol City W win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
FTBristol City W 1–1 Southampton W after 90 minutes, as graded · Bristol City W win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bristol City W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bristol City W 45%, draw 23%, Southampton W 32%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Bristol City W v Southampton WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bristol City W win45%

Draw23%

Southampton W win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundGroup stage

VenueRobins High Performance Centre

Line-ups

Bristol City W

Southampton W

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bristol City W

Southampton W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 4 Oct · Women's Championship

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bristol City W

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Bentley

12 A. Apostolakis

23 B. Aspin

3 G. Lawley

40 N. McDonald

18 M. Meena

5 S. Ingle

7 K. Robinson

16 E. Syme

10 L. Lindstrom

9 R. Hardy

Coach · Charlotte Healy

Substitutes

13 · L. Brzykcy

17 · H. McSheffrey

20 · E. Morgan

15 · O. Wos

21 · M. Dafeur

14 · E. Bissell

19 · M. Farrugia

Southampton W

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Moloney

3 M. Mott

5 A. Goddard

23 M. Collett

2 R. Brown

4 M. Bashford

8 C. Peplow

7 E. Brazil

17 L. McInnes

9 E. Harries

18 F. Jupp

Coach · Simon Parker

Substitutes

13 · A. Santos

15 · N. Murphy

28 · J. Archibald

11 · A. Ferguson

27 · S. Rae

33 · S. Bolton

12 · M. Edwards

26 · R. Tucker

Our number · bristol city w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market44%

Us45%

~~Market~~44%

We make Bristol City W a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bristol City W v Southampton W~~1.58 – 1.28

~~The market · Bristol City W win~~44% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bristol City W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bristol City W win	45%	44%	+1
Draw	23%	27%	−4
Southampton W win	32%	29%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	56%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Bristol City W or draw	68%	71%	−3
Bristol City W clean sheet	28%	–	–
Southampton W clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 5.3 8.0 4.7 2.0 1 9.7 10.8 7.2 3.1 2 7.1 8.9 5.7 2.5 3 3.8 4.8 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bristol City W down, Southampton W across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 668 Women's Championship matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Women's Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bristol City W at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Southampton W away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Bristol City W, 1.28 for Southampton W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BRI 2–1 SOU · BRI 0–2 SOU · SOU 1–1 BRI · SOU 0–1 BRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · WSL Cup this season · since 30 Sept

BRISTOL CITY W

No matches in our record yet.

SOUTHAMPTON W

L1–3

Bristol City W v Southampton W

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Bristol City W

Southampton W

Rest & schedule

Bristol City W

Southampton W

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Bristol City W

Southampton W

Match statistics

Line-ups

Bristol City W

Southampton W

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · WSL Cup this season · since 30 Sept