Watford W v Durham W prediction · Women's Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Watford WDrawDurham W

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Durham W 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Durham W just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Watford W 37%, draw 22%, Durham W 41%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Watford W v Durham WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Watford W win37%

Draw22%

Durham W win41%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueVicarage Road

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Watford W

Durham W

8Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · WSL Cup

Last match: 21 Oct · WSL Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Watford W	5	−5	3
12	Durham W	5	−11	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · durham w winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Durham W a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Watford W v Durham W~~1.56 – 1.68

~~Form · Women's Championship this season · since 4 Sept~~W0 D3 L2 · W0 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 3 v 0~~10 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Watford W win	37%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Durham W win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Watford W or draw	59%	–	–
Watford W clean sheet	20%	–	–
Durham W clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.7 7.2 5.5 3.1 1 6.9 9.6 8.2 4.6 2.0 2 5.0 7.8 6.3 3.5 3 2.6 4.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Watford W down, Durham W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 668 Women's Championship matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Women's Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Watford W at home: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Durham W away: 1.33 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Watford W, 1.68 for Durham W. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DUR 0–2 WAT · WAT 1–1 DUR · WAT 3–3 DUR · DUR 2–1 WAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Women's Championship this season · since 4 Sept

WATFORD W

DDLLD0–0 · 2–2 · 1–5 · 1–2 · 2–2

DURHAM W

LLLLL1–3 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Newcastle United W	5	+13	15
2	Sunderland W	5	+7	13
3	Ipswich Town W	5	+4	11
4	Nottingham Forest W	5	+3	9
5	Wolverhampton W	5	+1	7
6	Bristol City W	5	+1	7
7	Southampton W	5	+1	6
8	Leicester City FC W	5	−4	6
9	Sheffield United W	5	−4	3
10	Watford W	5	−5	3
11	Burnley W	5	−6	2
12	Durham W	5	−11	0