West Ham United U18 v Aston Villa U18 prediction · U18 Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

West Ham United U18 1–0 Aston Villa U18 ASTON VILLA U18 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aston Villa U18 win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.730

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aston Villa U18 win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Aston Villa U18 50% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 33–18–49
1′KICK-OFF West Ham United U18 v Aston Villa U18
24′West Ham United U18 find the net on 23′. 1–0. 1–0 · 53–20–27
24′We said Aston Villa U18 at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–0 · 53–20–27
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' West Ham United U18 1–0 Aston Villa U18
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Aston Villa U18 win: 50% at kick-off, 27% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' West Ham United U18 win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Aston Villa U18 win 27%)
25′West Ham United U18 ahead on 21′ through J. Longman. 1–0. 1–0 · 54–20–26
32′We said Aston Villa U18 at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 55–21–24
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Aston Villa U18 win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
45′HALF-TIME West Ham United U18 1–0 Aston Villa U18
46′We said Aston Villa U18 at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 58–23–19
46′SECOND HALF West Ham United U18 1–0 Aston Villa U18
58′We said Aston Villa U18 at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Aston Villa U18 win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
68′We said Aston Villa U18 at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
77′We said Aston Villa U18 at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–20–4
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Aston Villa U18 win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME West Ham United U18 1–0 Aston Villa U18
FTWest Ham United U18 1–0 Aston Villa U18 · Aston Villa U18 win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aston Villa U18 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: West Ham United U18 33%, draw 18%, Aston Villa U18 50%. Over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 82%.

The AI’s read on West Ham United U18 v Aston Villa U18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

West Ham United U18 win33%

Draw18%

Aston Villa U18 win50%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundSouth

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

West Ham United U18

Aston Villa U18

28Days since last match28

Last match: 19 Sept · U18 Premier League - South

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	West Ham United U18	6	+1	10
10	Aston Villa U18	6	+2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aston villa u18 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Aston Villa U18 a 50% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–2.7, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · West Ham United U18 v Aston Villa U18~~2.18 – 2.68

~~Form · U18 Premier League - South this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~6 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
West Ham United U18 win	33%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Aston Villa U18 win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	86%	–	–
Both teams to score	82%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	71%	–	–
West Ham United U18 or draw	50%	–	–
West Ham United U18 clean sheet	7%	–	–
Aston Villa U18 clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.4%

0123450 2.3 2.9 2.5 1 4.6 6.0 5.2 3.5 2 5.0 6.4 5.6 3.7 2.13 3.6 4.6 4.0 2.7 4 2.6 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+West Ham United U18 down, Aston Villa U18 across0–5 goals a side shown (91.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 886 U18 Premier League - South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U18 Premier League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 85.7% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.60 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

West Ham United U18 at home: 2.00 scored, 3.17 conceded a game (last 6). Aston Villa U18 away: 3.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for West Ham United U18, 2.68 for Aston Villa U18. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.60

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AST 3–1 WES · WES 2–1 AST · WES 0–1 AST · AST 1–3 WES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · U18 Premier League - South this season · since 15 Aug

WEST HAM UNITED U18

LWWDLW1–3 · 5–2 · 5–4 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 3–0

ASTON VILLA U18

DDWWLL2–2 · 5–5 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 0–2 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tottenham Hotspur U18	6	+24	16
2	Chelsea U18	7	+18	15
3	Southampton U18	6	+9	12
4	Fulham U18	6	+8	12
5	Arsenal U18	6	+4	10
6	West Ham United U18	6	+1	10
7	Brighton U18	6	−2	10
8	Brentford U18	6	0	9
9	Ipswich Town U18	6	0	9
10	Aston Villa U18	6	+2	8
11	West Bromwich Albion U18	6	−9	7
12	Norwich City U18	6	−9	6
13	AFC Bournemouth U18	6	−8	5
14	Crystal Palace U18	6	−6	4
15	Reading U18	7	−16	4
16	Birmingham City U18	6	−16	3