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West Bromwich Albion U18 v Chelsea U18

West Bromwich Albion U18

3–5Full time

Chelsea U18

U18 Premier League - South · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

West Bromwich Albion U18 3–5 Chelsea U18 CHELSEA U18 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chelsea U18 win~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.144

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chelsea U18 win at 69%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chelsea U18 was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 15–16–69
1′KICK-OFF West Bromwich Albion U18 v Chelsea U18
17′Chelsea U18 score on 16′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–10–84
17′We published Chelsea U18 at 69%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–1 · 6–10–84
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' West Bromwich Albion U18 0–1 Chelsea U18
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Chelsea U18 win: 69% at kick-off, 84% now
20′Chelsea U18 find the net on 19′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–4–94
20′We published Chelsea U18 at 69%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 2–4–94
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' West Bromwich Albion U18 0–2 Chelsea U18
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Chelsea U18 win: 69% at kick-off, 94% now
27′We published Chelsea U18 at 69%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
32′A goal for West Bromwich Albion U18 on 32′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 5–12–83
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' West Bromwich Albion U18 1–2 Chelsea U18
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Chelsea U18 win: 69% at kick-off, 83% now
45′HALF-TIME West Bromwich Albion U18 2–3 Chelsea U18
46′SECOND HALF West Bromwich Albion U18 2–3 Chelsea U18
47′Chelsea U18 score on 45′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–96
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' West Bromwich Albion U18 1–3 Chelsea U18
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+2' Chelsea U18 win: 69% at kick-off, 96% now
50′West Bromwich Albion U18 find the net on 45′. 2–3. 2–3 · 4–13–83
50′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.1 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 4–13–83
50′⚽ GOAL · 45+5' West Bromwich Albion U18 2–3 Chelsea U18
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+5' Chelsea U18 win: 69% at kick-off, 83% now
52′A goal for Chelsea U18 on 51′ — 2–4. 2–4 · 1–3–96
52′6 goals already, more than the 4.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 1–3–96
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' West Bromwich Albion U18 2–4 Chelsea U18
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Chelsea U18 win: 69% at kick-off, 96% now
70′Chelsea U18 score on 70′ to make it 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' West Bromwich Albion U18 2–5 Chelsea U18
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Chelsea U18 win: 69% at kick-off, over 99% now
71′We published Chelsea U18 at 69%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–5 · 0–0–100
71′That is 7, and we only asked for 4.1 across ninety minutes. 2–5 · 0–0–100
87′West Bromwich Albion U18 find the net on 87′. 3–5. 3–5 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' West Bromwich Albion U18 3–5 Chelsea U18
88′8 goals already, more than the 4.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–5 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME West Bromwich Albion U18 3–5 Chelsea U18
FTWest Bromwich Albion U18 3–5 Chelsea U18 · Chelsea U18 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chelsea U18 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: West Bromwich Albion U18 15%, draw 16%, Chelsea U18 69%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on West Bromwich Albion U18 v Chelsea U18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

West Bromwich Albion U18 win15%

Draw16%

Chelsea U18 win69%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouth

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

West Bromwich Albion U18

Chelsea U18

28Days since last match4

Last match: 19 Sept · U18 Premier League - South

Last match: 13 Oct · U18 Premier League - South

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Chelsea U18	7	+18	15
11	West Bromwich Albion U18	6	−9	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chelsea u18 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

69% The market–

Us69%

We make Chelsea U18 a 69% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–2.8, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · West Bromwich Albion U18 v Chelsea U18~~1.28 – 2.83

~~Form · last six in U18 Premier League - South this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 15~~11 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
West Bromwich Albion U18 win	15%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Chelsea U18 win	69%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	77%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	58%	–	–
West Bromwich Albion U18 or draw	31%	–	–
West Bromwich Albion U18 clean sheet	6%	–	–
Chelsea U18 clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.2%

0123450 4.9 6.6 6.1 4.4 2.51 2.3 5.9 8.2 7.6 5.4 3.12 3.8 5.3 4.9 3.4 3 2.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+West Bromwich Albion U18 down, Chelsea U18 across0–5 goals a side shown (92.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 886 U18 Premier League - South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U18 Premier League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 85.7% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

West Bromwich Albion U18 at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Chelsea U18 away: 4.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for West Bromwich Albion U18, 2.83 for Chelsea U18. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHE 0–1 WES · WES 1–4 CHE · WES 2–4 CHE · CHE 4–1 WES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in U18 Premier League - South this season · since 15 Aug

WEST BROMWICH ALBION U18

DLLWWL0–0 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–7

CHELSEA U18

WWLWWW4–1 · 6–1 · 3–4 · 5–1 · 5–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tottenham Hotspur U18	6	+24	16
2	Chelsea U18	7	+18	15
3	Southampton U18	6	+9	12
4	Fulham U18	6	+8	12
5	Arsenal U18	6	+4	10
6	West Ham United U18	6	+1	10
7	Brighton U18	6	−2	10
8	Brentford U18	6	0	9
9	Ipswich Town U18	6	0	9
10	Aston Villa U18	6	+2	8
11	West Bromwich Albion U18	6	−9	7
12	Norwich City U18	6	−9	6
13	AFC Bournemouth U18	6	−8	5
14	Crystal Palace U18	6	−6	4
15	Reading U18	7	−16	4
16	Birmingham City U18	6	−16	3