Norwich City U18 v Brighton U18 prediction · U18 Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Norwich City U18 2–4 Brighton U18 BRIGHTON U18 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brighton U18 win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.256

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brighton U18 win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Brighton U18 was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 24–17–59
1′KICK-OFF Norwich City U18 v Brighton U18
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Brighton U18 win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
45′HALF-TIME Norwich City U18 0–0 Brighton U18
46′SECOND HALF Norwich City U18 0–0 Brighton U18
48′We said Brighton U18 at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 24–29–47
54′Brighton U18 find the net on 54′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–17–77
54′We published Brighton U18 at 59%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 6–17–77
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Norwich City U18 0–1 Brighton U18
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Brighton U18 win: 59% at kick-off, 77% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Brighton U18 win: 59% at kick-off, 79% now
65′A goal for Brighton U18 on 65′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–96
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Norwich City U18 0–2 Brighton U18
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Brighton U18 win: 59% at kick-off, 96% now
66′We published Brighton U18 at 59%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 1–4–96
75′Norwich City U18 score on 74′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–83
75′We published Brighton U18 at 59%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–2 · 2–14–83
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Norwich City U18 1–2 Brighton U18
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Brighton U18 win: 59% at kick-off, 83% now
77′We published Brighton U18 at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Brighton U18 win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
83′We published Brighton U18 at 59%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
87′Brighton U18 find the net on 86′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
87′We published Brighton U18 at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Norwich City U18 1–3 Brighton U18
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Brighton U18 win: 59% at kick-off, over 99% now
88′Goals are coming at about the 4.4 we expected. 1–3 · 0–0–100
92′A goal for Norwich City U18 on 90′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 0–3–96
92′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.4 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–3–96
92′PENALTY MISSED · 90+1' Norwich City U18
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Norwich City U18 2–3 Brighton U18
94′Brighton U18 score on 90′ to make it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
94′6 goals already, more than the 4.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Norwich City U18 2–4 Brighton U18
FTFULL TIME Norwich City U18 2–4 Brighton U18
FTNorwich City U18 2–4 Brighton U18 · Brighton U18 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brighton U18 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Norwich City U18 24%, draw 17%, Brighton U18 59%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Norwich City U18 v Brighton U18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Norwich City U18 win24%

Draw17%

Brighton U18 win59%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundSouth

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Norwich City U18

Brighton U18

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · U18 Premier League - South

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Brighton U18	7	−1	13
14	Norwich City U18	7	−10	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brighton u18 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Brighton U18 a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–2.7, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Norwich City U18 v Brighton U18~~1.70 – 2.70

~~Form · last six in U18 Premier League - South this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 13~~14 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Norwich City U18 win	24%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Brighton U18 win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	75%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
Norwich City U18 or draw	41%	–	–
Norwich City U18 clean sheet	7%	–	–
Brighton U18 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.5%

0123450 3.6 4.5 4.0 2.7 1 2.4 5.5 7.5 6.6 4.5 2.52 4.8 6.3 5.6 3.8 2.13 2.7 3.6 3.2 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Norwich City U18 down, Brighton U18 across0–5 goals a side shown (92.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 894 U18 Premier League - South matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U18 Premier League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 84.2% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.80 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Norwich City U18 at home: 1.50 scored, 3.50 conceded a game (last 6). Brighton U18 away: 2.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Norwich City U18, 2.70 for Brighton U18. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.80

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~10 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NOR 2–2 BRI · BRI 5–2 NOR · NOR 4–1 BRI · BRI 1–1 NOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in U18 Premier League - South this season · since 22 Aug

NORWICH CITY U18

LLLWLL1–6 · 4–7 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 1–5 · 0–1

BRIGHTON U18

LWDLWW4–7 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 4–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chelsea U18	8	+20	18
2	Tottenham Hotspur U18	7	+23	16
3	Fulham U18	7	+10	15
4	Arsenal U18	7	+5	13
5	West Ham United U18	7	+2	13
6	Brighton U18	7	−1	13
7	Southampton U18	7	+8	12
8	Brentford U18	7	+3	12
9	Ipswich Town U18	7	−4	9
10	Aston Villa U18	7	+1	8
11	AFC Bournemouth U18	7	−7	8
12	Crystal Palace U18	7	−2	7
13	West Bromwich Albion U18	7	−11	7
14	Norwich City U18	7	−10	6
15	Reading U18	8	−19	4
16	Birmingham City U18	7	−18	3