Fulham U18 v Birmingham City U18 prediction · U18 Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Fulham U18 4–2 Birmingham City U18 FULHAM U18 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fulham U18 win~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.090

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fulham U18 win at 76%.
1′A goal for Fulham U18 on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 88–7–4
1′KICK-OFF Fulham U18 v Birmingham City U18
5′We said Fulham U18 at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–8–4
5′K. Vally scores for Fulham U18 on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 88–8–4
14′Little has changed for our model: Fulham U18 76% before kick-off, 87% now. 1–0 · 87–8–4
24′27′: M. Campbell on the scoresheet for Birmingham City U18, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 70–17–13
24′⚽ GOAL · 27' Fulham U18 1–1 Birmingham City U18 · M. Campbell (assist H. Pearsall)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Fulham U18 win: 76% at kick-off, 70% now
32′The goal count is tracking the 4.5 we expected. 1–1 · 67–19–14
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Fulham U18 win: 76% at kick-off, 66% now
39′We said Fulham U18 at 76%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 1–1 · 64–22–14
45′HALF-TIME Fulham U18 1–1 Birmingham City U18
46′SECOND HALF Fulham U18 1–1 Birmingham City U18
47′Fulham U18 find the net on 47′. 2–1. 2–1 · 86–11–4
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Fulham U18 2–1 Birmingham City U18
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Fulham U18 win: 76% at kick-off, 86% now
48′Fulham U18 ahead on 46′ through K. Sessegnon. 2–1. 2–1 · 86–11–4
53′K. Vally scores for Fulham U18 on 52′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–1
53′⚽ GOAL · 52' Fulham U18 3–1 Birmingham City U18 · K. Vally (penalty)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Fulham U18 win: 76% at kick-off, 97% now
54′We said Fulham U18 at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–1 · 97–3–1
57′Birmingham City U18 score on 57′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 86–11–3
57′5 goals already, more than the 4.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 86–11–3
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Fulham U18 3–2 Birmingham City U18
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Fulham U18 win: 76% at kick-off, 86% now
76′Fulham U18 find the net on 75′. 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
76′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.5 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 99–1–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Fulham U18 4–2 Birmingham City U18
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Fulham U18 win: 76% at kick-off, 99% now
82′We said Fulham U18 at 76% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Fulham U18 4–2 Birmingham City U18
FTFulham U18 4–2 Birmingham City U18 · Fulham U18 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fulham U18 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fulham U18 76%, draw 13%, Birmingham City U18 12%. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Fulham U18 v Birmingham City U18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Fulham U18 win76%

Draw13%

Birmingham City U18 win12%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouth

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fulham U18

Birmingham City U18

28Days since last match28

Last match: 19 Sept · U18 Premier League - South

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Fulham U18	6	+8	12
16	Birmingham City U18	6	−16	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fulham u18 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

76% The market–

Us76%

We make Fulham U18 a 76% chance to win. The model expects 3.3–1.3, and 3–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fulham U18 v Birmingham City U18~~3.28 – 1.25

~~Form · U18 Premier League - South this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D3 L0 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 12 v 3~~4 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fulham U18 win	76%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Birmingham City U18 win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	82%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	65%	–	–
Fulham U18 or draw	88%	–	–
Fulham U18 clean sheet	29%	–	–
Birmingham City U18 clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.5%

0123450 1 3.8 4.5 2.9 2 5.9 7.1 4.5 3 6.2 7.5 4.7 2.0 4 5.1 6.1 3.8 5 3.4 4.0 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fulham U18 down, Birmingham City U18 across0–5 goals a side shown (87.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 886 U18 Premier League - South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U18 Premier League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 85.7% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fulham U18 at home: 3.00 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Birmingham City U18 away: 1.33 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.28 goals for Fulham U18, 1.25 for Birmingham City U18. Most likely score 3–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BIR 2–1 FUL · FUL 3–4 BIR · FUL 5–0 BIR · BIR 0–3 FUL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · U18 Premier League - South this season · since 15 Aug

FULHAM U18

WDWWDD5–2 · 5–5 · 4–0 · 4–3 · 2–2 · 3–3

BIRMINGHAM CITY U18

LLLLWL1–3 · 1–4 · 2–8 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tottenham Hotspur U18	6	+24	16
2	Chelsea U18	7	+18	15
3	Southampton U18	6	+9	12
4	Fulham U18	6	+8	12
5	Arsenal U18	6	+4	10
6	West Ham United U18	6	+1	10
7	Brighton U18	6	−2	10
8	Brentford U18	6	0	9
9	Ipswich Town U18	6	0	9
10	Aston Villa U18	6	+2	8
11	West Bromwich Albion U18	6	−9	7
12	Norwich City U18	6	−9	6
13	AFC Bournemouth U18	6	−8	5
14	Crystal Palace U18	6	−6	4
15	Reading U18	7	−16	4
16	Birmingham City U18	6	−16	3