Brighton U18 v Southampton U18 prediction · U18 Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Brighton U18 3–2 Southampton U18 SOUTHAMPTON U18 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Southampton U18 win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.600

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Southampton U18 win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Southampton U18 was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 38–19–43
1′KICK-OFF Brighton U18 v Southampton U18
6′A goal for Brighton U18 on 6′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 58–18–25
6′We said Southampton U18 at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–0 · 58–18–25
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Brighton U18 1–0 Southampton U18
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Southampton U18 win: 43% at kick-off, 25% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Brighton U18 win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Southampton U18 win 25%)
8′We said Southampton U18 at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 58–18–24
11′Southampton U18 score on 11′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 38–20–42
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Brighton U18 1–1 Southampton U18
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Southampton U18 win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Southampton U18 win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Brighton U18 win 37%)
24′Southampton U18 find the net on 24′. 1–2. 1–2 · 18–18–63
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Brighton U18 1–2 Southampton U18
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Southampton U18 win: 43% at kick-off, 63% now
25′We published Southampton U18 at 43%. Our model now makes it 63%. 1–2 · 18–18–63
37′We published Southampton U18 at 43%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–2 · 16–20–65
45′HALF-TIME Brighton U18 1–2 Southampton U18
46′SECOND HALF Brighton U18 1–2 Southampton U18
47′A goal for Brighton U18 on 47′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 34–29–37
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Brighton U18 2–2 Southampton U18
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Southampton U18 win: 43% at kick-off, 37% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Southampton U18 win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
62′Brighton U18 score on 62′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 68–22–10
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Brighton U18 3–2 Southampton U18
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Southampton U18 win: 43% at kick-off, 10% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Brighton U18 win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Southampton U18 win 10%)
63′We said Southampton U18 at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 3–2 · 68–22–9
63′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.6 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 68–22–9
75′We said Southampton U18 at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 3–2 · 76–20–4
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Southampton U18 win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Brighton U18 3–2 Southampton U18
FTBrighton U18 3–2 Southampton U18 · Southampton U18 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Southampton U18 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brighton U18 38%, draw 19%, Southampton U18 43%. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 80%.

The AI’s read on Brighton U18 v Southampton U18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Brighton U18 win38%

Draw19%

Southampton U18 win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundSouth

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brighton U18

Southampton U18

28Days since last match28

Last match: 19 Sept · U18 Premier League - South

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Southampton U18	6	+9	12
7	Brighton U18	6	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · southampton u18 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Southampton U18 a 43% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–2.4, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Brighton U18 v Southampton U18~~2.22 – 2.35

~~Form · U18 Premier League - South this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~7 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brighton U18 win	38%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Southampton U18 win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	83%	–	–
Both teams to score	80%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	66%	–	–
Brighton U18 or draw	57%	–	–
Brighton U18 clean sheet	10%	–	–
Southampton U18 clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.8%

0123450 2.7 3.0 2.3 1 2.5 5.4 6.3 4.9 2.9 2 2.6 5.9 6.8 5.3 3.1 3 4.4 5.0 3.9 2.3 4 2.4 2.8 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brighton U18 down, Southampton U18 across0–5 goals a side shown (93.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 886 U18 Premier League - South matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U18 Premier League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 85.7% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brighton U18 at home: 2.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Southampton U18 away: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.22 goals for Brighton U18, 2.35 for Southampton U18. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SOU 2–2 BRI · BRI 2–3 SOU · SOU 5–1 BRI · BRI 2–1 SOU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · U18 Premier League - South this season · since 15 Aug

BRIGHTON U18

WLWDLW3–1 · 4–7 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 4–2

SOUTHAMPTON U18

WWWLWL4–2 · 4–1 · 7–4 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tottenham Hotspur U18	6	+24	16
2	Chelsea U18	7	+18	15
3	Southampton U18	6	+9	12
4	Fulham U18	6	+8	12
5	Arsenal U18	6	+4	10
6	West Ham United U18	6	+1	10
7	Brighton U18	6	−2	10
8	Brentford U18	6	0	9
9	Ipswich Town U18	6	0	9
10	Aston Villa U18	6	+2	8
11	West Bromwich Albion U18	6	−9	7
12	Norwich City U18	6	−9	6
13	AFC Bournemouth U18	6	−8	5
14	Crystal Palace U18	6	−6	4
15	Reading U18	7	−16	4
16	Birmingham City U18	6	−16	3