Birmingham City U18 v AFC Bournemouth U18 prediction · U18 Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Birmingham City U18 0–2 AFC Bournemouth U18 AFC BOURNEMOUTH U18 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AFC Bournemouth U18 win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.220

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AFC Bournemouth U18 win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: AFC Bournemouth U18 was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 22–17–62
1′KICK-OFF Birmingham City U18 v AFC Bournemouth U18
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' AFC Bournemouth U18 win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
45′HALF-TIME Birmingham City U18 0–0 AFC Bournemouth U18
46′We said AFC Bournemouth U18 at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 50%. 0–0 · 22–28–50
46′SECOND HALF Birmingham City U18 0–0 AFC Bournemouth U18
48′We said AFC Bournemouth U18 at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 22–29–49
55′We expected about 4.4 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 21–32–46
58′We said AFC Bournemouth U18 at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 21–35–44
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' AFC Bournemouth U18 win: 62% at kick-off, 42% now
66′We said AFC Bournemouth U18 at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 19–42–39
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was AFC Bournemouth U18 win 41%)
71′We said AFC Bournemouth U18 at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 18–48–34
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' AFC Bournemouth U18 win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
76′We said AFC Bournemouth U18 at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 15–56–29
79′We said AFC Bournemouth U18 at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 13–62–24
80′A goal for AFC Bournemouth U18 on 80′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 1–11–88
80′We published AFC Bournemouth U18 at 62%. Our model now makes it 88%. 0–1 · 1–11–88
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Birmingham City U18 0–1 AFC Bournemouth U18
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' AFC Bournemouth U18 win: 62% at kick-off, 88% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' AFC Bournemouth U18 win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 62%)
83′We published AFC Bournemouth U18 at 62%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' AFC Bournemouth U18 win: 62% at kick-off, 92% now
90′We published AFC Bournemouth U18 at 62%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
92′AFC Bournemouth U18 score on 90′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Birmingham City U18 0–2 AFC Bournemouth U18
93′We published AFC Bournemouth U18 at 62%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Birmingham City U18 0–2 AFC Bournemouth U18
FTBirmingham City U18 0–2 AFC Bournemouth U18 · AFC Bournemouth U18 win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AFC Bournemouth U18 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Birmingham City U18 22%, draw 17%, AFC Bournemouth U18 62%. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Birmingham City U18 v AFC Bournemouth U18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Birmingham City U18 win22%

Draw17%

AFC Bournemouth U18 win62%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundSouth

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Birmingham City U18

AFC Bournemouth U18

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · U18 Premier League - South

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	AFC Bournemouth U18	7	−7	8
16	Birmingham City U18	7	−18	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afc bournemouth u18 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make AFC Bournemouth U18 a 62% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–2.8, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Birmingham City U18 v AFC Bournemouth U18~~1.63 – 2.80

~~Form · last six in U18 Premier League - South this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 3 v 8~~16 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Birmingham City U18 win	22%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
AFC Bournemouth U18 win	62%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	81%	–	–
Both teams to score	74%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	64%	–	–
Birmingham City U18 or draw	38%	–	–
Birmingham City U18 clean sheet	7%	–	–
AFC Bournemouth U18 clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.4%

0123450 3.7 4.8 4.3 3.1 1 2.3 5.4 7.4 6.8 4.8 2.72 4.4 6.0 5.5 3.8 2.23 2.4 3.3 3.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Birmingham City U18 down, AFC Bournemouth U18 across0–5 goals a side shown (92.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 894 U18 Premier League - South matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U18 Premier League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 84.2% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Birmingham City U18 at home: 0.50 scored, 3.67 conceded a game (last 6). AFC Bournemouth U18 away: 1.33 scored, 4.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Birmingham City U18, 2.80 for AFC Bournemouth U18. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in U18 Premier League - South this season · since 22 Aug

BIRMINGHAM CITY U18

LLLWLL1–4 · 2–8 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–4

AFC BOURNEMOUTH U18

WLDLLW7–4 · 2–6 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chelsea U18	8	+20	18
2	Tottenham Hotspur U18	7	+23	16
3	Fulham U18	7	+10	15
4	Arsenal U18	7	+5	13
5	West Ham United U18	7	+2	13
6	Brighton U18	7	−1	13
7	Southampton U18	7	+8	12
8	Brentford U18	7	+3	12
9	Ipswich Town U18	7	−4	9
10	Aston Villa U18	7	+1	8
11	AFC Bournemouth U18	7	−7	8
12	Crystal Palace U18	7	−2	7
13	West Bromwich Albion U18	7	−11	7
14	Norwich City U18	7	−10	6
15	Reading U18	8	−19	4
16	Birmingham City U18	7	−18	3