Aston Villa U18 v Arsenal U18 prediction · U18 Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Aston Villa U18 1–3 Arsenal U18 ASTON VILLA U18 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aston Villa U18 win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.632

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aston Villa U18 win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Aston Villa U18 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–20–37
1′KICK-OFF Aston Villa U18 v Arsenal U18
10′Arsenal U18 find the net on 10′. 0–1. 0–1 · 24–19–57
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Aston Villa U18 0–1 Arsenal U18
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Aston Villa U18 win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Arsenal U18 win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Aston Villa U18 win 43%)
11′We said Aston Villa U18 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–19–57
12′A goal for Arsenal U18 on 12′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 11–13–77
12′A. Donczew scores for Arsenal U18 on 11′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 11–13–77
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Aston Villa U18 0–2 Arsenal U18
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Aston Villa U18 win: 44% at kick-off, 11% now
13′We said Aston Villa U18 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–2 · 10–13–77
17′Arsenal U18 score on 17′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 4–6–90
17′We said Aston Villa U18 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–3 · 4–6–90
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Aston Villa U18 0–3 Arsenal U18
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Aston Villa U18 win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
22′Aston Villa U18 find the net on 22′. 1–3. 1–3 · 9–12–79
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Aston Villa U18 1–3 Arsenal U18
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Aston Villa U18 win: 44% at kick-off, 9% now
23′We said Aston Villa U18 at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–3 · 9–12–79
45′HALF-TIME Aston Villa U18 1–3 Arsenal U18
46′Aston Villa U18 pull one back on 21′ through J. Doughty. 1–3. 1–3 · 5–10–85
46′SECOND HALF Aston Villa U18 1–3 Arsenal U18
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Aston Villa U18 win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
79′The goal count is tracking the 4.1 we expected. 1–3 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Aston Villa U18 1–3 Arsenal U18
FTAston Villa U18 1–3 Arsenal U18 · Aston Villa U18 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Aston Villa U18 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Aston Villa U18 44%, draw 20%, Arsenal U18 37%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Aston Villa U18 v Arsenal U18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Aston Villa U18 win44%

Draw20%

Arsenal U18 win37%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundSouth

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aston Villa U18

Arsenal U18

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · U18 Premier League - South

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Arsenal U18	7	+5	13
10	Aston Villa U18	7	+1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aston villa u18 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Aston Villa U18 a 44% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–2.0, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aston Villa U18 v Arsenal U18~~2.15 – 1.96

~~Form · last six in U18 Premier League - South this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 13~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aston Villa U18 win	44%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Arsenal U18 win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	77%	–	–
Both teams to score	75%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	58%	–	–
Aston Villa U18 or draw	63%	–	–
Aston Villa U18 clean sheet	15%	–	–
Arsenal U18 clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.3%

0123450 3.6 3.2 2.1 1 3.9 6.7 6.7 4.4 2.2 2 3.9 7.3 7.0 4.6 2.3 3 2.8 5.2 5.0 3.3 4 2.8 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aston Villa U18 down, Arsenal U18 across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 894 U18 Premier League - South matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U18 Premier League - South matches have gone over 2.5 in 84.2% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 5.10 goals a meeting; 10 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aston Villa U18 at home: 2.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Arsenal U18 away: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Aston Villa U18, 1.96 for Arsenal U18. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~5.10

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AST 1–2 ARS · ARS 2–6 AST · AST 0–3 ARS · ARS 2–4 AST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in U18 Premier League - South this season · since 22 Aug

ASTON VILLA U18

DWWLLL5–5 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 0–1

ARSENAL U18

LLWWWW1–3 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Chelsea U18	8	+20	18
2	Tottenham Hotspur U18	7	+23	16
3	Fulham U18	7	+10	15
4	Arsenal U18	7	+5	13
5	West Ham United U18	7	+2	13
6	Brighton U18	7	−1	13
7	Southampton U18	7	+8	12
8	Brentford U18	7	+3	12
9	Ipswich Town U18	7	−4	9
10	Aston Villa U18	7	+1	8
11	AFC Bournemouth U18	7	−7	8
12	Crystal Palace U18	7	−2	7
13	West Bromwich Albion U18	7	−11	7
14	Norwich City U18	7	−10	6
15	Reading U18	8	−19	4
16	Birmingham City U18	7	−18	3