Wolves U18 v Derby County U18 prediction · U18 Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Wolves U18 1–2 Derby County U18 DERBY COUNTY U18 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Derby County U18 win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.359

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Derby County U18 win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Derby County U18 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 29–20–51
1′KICK-OFF Wolves U18 v Derby County U18
9′A goal for Derby County U18 on 9′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–16–71
9′We said Derby County U18 at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 12–16–71
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Wolves U18 0–1 Derby County U18
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Derby County U18 win: 51% at kick-off, 71% now
13′O. Lukic scores for Derby County U18 on 8′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–16–72
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 0–1 · 10–17–72
38′Derby County U18 score on 38′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
38′We said Derby County U18 at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 0–2 · 2–7–91
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Wolves U18 0–2 Derby County U18
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Derby County U18 win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
45′HALF-TIME Wolves U18 0–2 Derby County U18
46′SECOND HALF Wolves U18 0–2 Derby County U18
59′We said Derby County U18 at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
73′Wolves U18 find the net on 73′. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–82
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Wolves U18 1–2 Derby County U18
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Derby County U18 win: 51% at kick-off, 82% now
74′We said Derby County U18 at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–2 · 2–15–83
77′We said Derby County U18 at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Derby County U18 win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
89′PENALTY MISSED · 88' Wolves U18
FTFULL TIME Wolves U18 1–2 Derby County U18
FTWolves U18 1–2 Derby County U18 · Derby County U18 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Derby County U18 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wolves U18 29%, draw 20%, Derby County U18 51%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Wolves U18 v Derby County U18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wolves U18 win29%

Draw20%

Derby County U18 win51%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundNorth

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wolves U18

Derby County U18

28Days since last match28

Last match: 19 Sept · U18 Premier League - North

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Derby County U18	6	−3	7
15	Wolves U18	5	−15	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · derby county u18 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Derby County U18 a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–2.1, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wolves U18 v Derby County U18~~1.50 – 2.08

~~Form · U18 Premier League - North this season · since 15 Aug~~W0 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 0 v 7~~15 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wolves U18 win	29%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Derby County U18 win	51%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Wolves U18 or draw	49%	–	–
Wolves U18 clean sheet	13%	–	–
Derby County U18 clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.8%

0123450 2.4 6.5 6.0 4.2 2.2 1 4.9 8.1 8.8 6.0 3.2 2 3.2 6.4 6.5 4.5 2.4 3 3.3 3.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wolves U18 down, Derby County U18 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 865 U18 Premier League - North matches up to 19 Sep 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U18 Premier League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.1% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.70 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wolves U18 at home: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Derby County U18 away: 2.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Wolves U18, 2.08 for Derby County U18. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~10 of 10

~~Last meetings~~WOL 1–2 DER · DER 2–1 WOL · DER 5–1 WOL · WOL 1–2 DER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · U18 Premier League - North this season · since 15 Aug

WOLVES U18

LLLLL0–2 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 0–4 · 0–6

DERBY COUNTY U18

LLWLWD1–3 · 1–4 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City U18	6	+18	18
2	Newcastle United U18	6	+12	15
3	Manchester United U18	5	+15	12
4	Nottingham Forest U18	5	+11	10
5	Liverpool U18	5	+3	8
6	Burnley U18	6	+2	8
7	Middlesbrough U18	6	−1	8
8	Derby County U18	6	−3	7
9	Everton U18	5	−1	6
10	Leeds United U18	5	−8	6
11	Blackburn Rovers U18	5	−15	6
12	Stoke City U18	6	−7	4
13	Leicester City U18	4	−5	2
14	Sunderland U18	3	−6	1
15	Wolves U18	5	−15	0