Sunderland U18 v Leeds United U18 prediction · U18 Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Sunderland U18 4–3 Leeds United U18 SUNDERLAND U18 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sunderland U18 win~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.204

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sunderland U18 win at 63%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sunderland U18 was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–16–21
1′KICK-OFF Sunderland U18 v Leeds United U18
11′A goal for Leeds United U18 on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 41–21–39
11′We said Sunderland U18 at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–1 · 41–21–39
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Sunderland U18 0–1 Leeds United U18
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Sunderland U18 win: 63% at kick-off, 41% now
13′Sunderland U18 score on 13′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 61–18–21
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Sunderland U18 1–1 Leeds United U18
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Sunderland U18 win: 63% at kick-off, 61% now
32′Goals are coming at about the 4.5 we expected. 1–1 · 56–22–22
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Sunderland U18 win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
42′Sunderland U18 find the net on 42′. 2–1. 2–1 · 78–15–7
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Sunderland U18 2–1 Leeds United U18
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Sunderland U18 win: 63% at kick-off, 78% now
43′We published Sunderland U18 at 63%. Our model now makes it 78%. 2–1 · 78–15–7
44′A goal for Sunderland U18 on 44′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 93–5–2
44′We published Sunderland U18 at 63%. Our model now makes it 93%. 3–1 · 93–5–2
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Sunderland U18 3–1 Leeds United U18
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Sunderland U18 win: 63% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME Sunderland U18 3–1 Leeds United U18
46′SECOND HALF Sunderland U18 3–1 Leeds United U18
56′We published Sunderland U18 at 63%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
56′Leeds United U18 score on 56′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 79–15–5
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Sunderland U18 3–2 Leeds United U18
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Sunderland U18 win: 63% at kick-off, 79% now
57′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.5 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 79–16–5
58′Sunderland U18 find the net on 58′. 4–2. 4–2 · 95–4–1
58′6 goals already, more than the 4.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 95–4–1
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Sunderland U18 4–2 Leeds United U18
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Sunderland U18 win: 63% at kick-off, 95% now
77′A goal for Leeds United U18 on 76′ — 4–3. 4–3 · 85–13–2
77′We published Sunderland U18 at 63%. Our model now makes it 85%. 4–3 · 85–13–2
77′That is 7, and we only asked for 4.5 across ninety minutes. 4–3 · 85–13–2
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Sunderland U18 4–3 Leeds United U18
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Sunderland U18 win: 63% at kick-off, 85% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Sunderland U18 win: 63% at kick-off, 93% now
FTFULL TIME Sunderland U18 4–3 Leeds United U18
FTSunderland U18 4–3 Leeds United U18 · Sunderland U18 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sunderland U18 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sunderland U18 63%, draw 16%, Leeds United U18 21%. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Sunderland U18 v Leeds United U18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Sunderland U18 win63%

Draw16%

Leeds United U18 win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundNorth

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sunderland U18

Leeds United U18

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · U18 Premier League - North

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Leeds United U18	6	−6	9
13	Sunderland U18	4	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sunderland u18 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Sunderland U18 a 63% chance to win. The model expects 2.9–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sunderland U18 v Leeds United U18~~2.89 – 1.64

~~Form · U18 Premier League - North this season · since 15 Aug~~W1 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 9~~13 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sunderland U18 win	63%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Leeds United U18 win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	82%	–	–
Both teams to score	75%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	66%	–	–
Sunderland U18 or draw	79%	–	–
Sunderland U18 clean sheet	20%	–	–
Leeds United U18 clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.2%

0123450 2.2 1 3.6 4.9 4.2 2.3 2 4.6 7.2 5.9 3.2 3 4.3 6.8 5.6 3.1 4 3.1 4.9 4.0 2.2 5 2.9 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Sunderland U18 down, Leeds United U18 across0–5 goals a side shown (91.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 872 U18 Premier League - North matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U18 Premier League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.6% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sunderland U18 at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Leeds United U18 away: 1.83 scored, 4.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.89 goals for Sunderland U18, 1.64 for Leeds United U18. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SUN 5–1 LEE · LEE 2–2 SUN · SUN 3–0 LEE · LEE 0–2 SUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · U18 Premier League - North this season · since 15 Aug

SUNDERLAND U18

DLLW2–2 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 2–1

LEEDS UNITED U18

LWLLWW1–6 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City U18	6	+18	18
2	Newcastle United U18	7	+15	18
3	Manchester United U18	6	+15	13
4	Nottingham Forest U18	6	+11	11
5	Derby County U18	7	−2	10
6	Liverpool U18	6	+3	9
7	Leeds United U18	6	−6	9
8	Burnley U18	7	−1	8
9	Middlesbrough U18	7	−3	8
10	Stoke City U18	7	−5	7
11	Everton U18	6	−3	6
12	Blackburn Rovers U18	6	−16	6
13	Sunderland U18	4	−5	4
14	Leicester City U18	5	−5	3
15	Wolves U18	6	−16	0