Newcastle United U18 v Burnley U18 prediction · U18 Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Newcastle United U18 3–0 Burnley U18 NEWCASTLE UNITED U18 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Newcastle United U18 win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.235

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Newcastle United U18 win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Newcastle United U18 61% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–17–23
1′KICK-OFF Newcastle United U18 v Burnley U18
22′A goal for Newcastle United U18 on 22′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–9
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Newcastle United U18 1–0 Burnley U18
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Newcastle United U18 win: 61% at kick-off, 77% now
23′We said Newcastle United U18 at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–9
45′Newcastle United U18 score on 45′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–2
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Newcastle United U18 2–0 Burnley U18
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Newcastle United U18 win: 61% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME Newcastle United U18 2–0 Burnley U18
46′We said Newcastle United U18 at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
46′The goal count is tracking the 4.3 we expected. 2–0 · 93–5–2
46′SECOND HALF Newcastle United U18 2–0 Burnley U18
57′We said Newcastle United U18 at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
75′Newcastle United U18 find the net on 75′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′We said Newcastle United U18 at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Newcastle United U18 3–0 Burnley U18
80′PENALTY MISSED · 80' Newcastle United U18
FTFULL TIME Newcastle United U18 3–0 Burnley U18
FTNewcastle United U18 3–0 Burnley U18 · Newcastle United U18 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Newcastle United U18 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Newcastle United U18 61%, draw 17%, Burnley U18 23%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Newcastle United U18 v Burnley U18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Newcastle United U18 win61%

Draw17%

Burnley U18 win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundNorth

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Newcastle United U18

Burnley U18

28Days since last match28

Last match: 19 Sept · U18 Premier League - North

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Newcastle United U18	6	+12	15
6	Burnley U18	6	+2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · newcastle united u18 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Newcastle United U18 a 61% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Newcastle United U18 v Burnley U18~~2.70 – 1.62

~~Form · U18 Premier League - North this season · since 15 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 8~~2 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newcastle United U18 win	61%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Burnley U18 win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	92%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	62%	–	–
Newcastle United U18 or draw	77%	–	–
Newcastle United U18 clean sheet	20%	–	–
Burnley U18 clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.7%

0123450 2.7 1 4.1 5.5 4.7 2.6 2 4.9 7.7 6.1 3.4 3 4.4 6.8 5.4 3.0 4 3.0 4.6 3.7 5 2.6 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Newcastle United U18 down, Burnley U18 across0–5 goals a side shown (93.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 865 U18 Premier League - North matches up to 19 Sep 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U18 Premier League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.1% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Newcastle United U18 at home: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Burnley U18 away: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.70 goals for Newcastle United U18, 1.62 for Burnley U18. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NEW 2–1 BUR · BUR 1–3 NEW · BUR 2–0 NEW · NEW 3–8 BUR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · U18 Premier League - North this season · since 15 Aug

NEWCASTLE UNITED U18

WWWWLW3–1 · 3–2 · 6–1 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 3–0

BURNLEY U18

LWDWLD0–1 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 2–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City U18	6	+18	18
2	Newcastle United U18	6	+12	15
3	Manchester United U18	5	+15	12
4	Nottingham Forest U18	5	+11	10
5	Liverpool U18	5	+3	8
6	Burnley U18	6	+2	8
7	Middlesbrough U18	6	−1	8
8	Derby County U18	6	−3	7
9	Everton U18	5	−1	6
10	Leeds United U18	5	−8	6
11	Blackburn Rovers U18	5	−15	6
12	Stoke City U18	6	−7	4
13	Leicester City U18	4	−5	2
14	Sunderland U18	3	−6	1
15	Wolves U18	5	−15	0