Middlesbrough U18 v Newcastle United U18 prediction · U18 Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Middlesbrough U18 3–1 Newcastle United U18 NEWCASTLE UNITED U18 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Newcastle United U18 win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.780

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Newcastle United U18 win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Newcastle United U18 was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 30–20–50
1′KICK-OFF Middlesbrough U18 v Newcastle United U18
24′Middlesbrough U18 score on 24′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 54–23–24
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Middlesbrough U18 1–0 Newcastle United U18
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Newcastle United U18 win: 50% at kick-off, 24% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Middlesbrough U18 win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Newcastle United U18 win 46%)
25′We said Newcastle United U18 at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–0 · 54–23–23
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 1–0 · 55–23–22
31′Newcastle United U18 find the net on 31′. 1–1. 1–1 · 29–26–45
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Middlesbrough U18 1–1 Newcastle United U18
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Newcastle United U18 win: 50% at kick-off, 45% now
31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Newcastle United U18 win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Middlesbrough U18 win 55%)
45′HALF-TIME Middlesbrough U18 1–1 Newcastle United U18
46′SECOND HALF Middlesbrough U18 1–1 Newcastle United U18
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Newcastle United U18 win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
50′A goal for Middlesbrough U18 on 50′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 61–25–15
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Middlesbrough U18 2–1 Newcastle United U18
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Newcastle United U18 win: 50% at kick-off, 15% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Middlesbrough U18 win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Newcastle United U18 win 39%)
51′We said Newcastle United U18 at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 61–25–14
58′Middlesbrough U18 score on 58′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 89–9–3
58′We said Newcastle United U18 at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 3–1 · 89–9–3
58′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 89–9–3
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Middlesbrough U18 3–1 Newcastle United U18
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Newcastle United U18 win: 50% at kick-off, 3% now
60′57′: A. Brown on the scoresheet for Middlesbrough U18, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 89–8–2
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Newcastle United U18 win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Middlesbrough U18 3–1 Newcastle United U18
FTMiddlesbrough U18 3–1 Newcastle United U18 · Newcastle United U18 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Newcastle United U18 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Middlesbrough U18 30%, draw 20%, Newcastle United U18 50%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Middlesbrough U18 v Newcastle United U18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Middlesbrough U18 win30%

Draw20%

Newcastle United U18 win50%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundNorth

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Middlesbrough U18

Newcastle United U18

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · U18 Premier League - North

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Newcastle United U18	7	+15	18
9	Middlesbrough U18	7	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · newcastle united u18 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Newcastle United U18 a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–2.1, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Middlesbrough U18 v Newcastle United U18~~1.60 – 2.13

~~Form · last six in U18 Premier League - North this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 18~~9 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Middlesbrough U18 win	30%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Newcastle United U18 win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	69%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Middlesbrough U18 or draw	50%	–	–
Middlesbrough U18 clean sheet	12%	–	–
Newcastle United U18 clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.5%

0123450 2.1 5.8 5.5 3.9 2.1 1 4.5 7.6 8.5 6.0 3.2 2 3.2 6.5 6.7 4.7 2.5 3 3.5 3.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Middlesbrough U18 down, Newcastle United U18 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 872 U18 Premier League - North matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U18 Premier League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.6% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.70 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Middlesbrough U18 at home: 3.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Newcastle United U18 away: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Middlesbrough U18, 2.13 for Newcastle United U18. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MID 0–4 NEW · NEW 2–1 MID · MID 2–4 NEW · NEW 0–1 MID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in U18 Premier League - North this season · since 22 Aug

MIDDLESBROUGH U18

DLLWWL2–2 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 1–0 · 5–0 · 1–3

NEWCASTLE UNITED U18

WWWLWW3–2 · 6–1 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City U18	6	+18	18
2	Newcastle United U18	7	+15	18
3	Manchester United U18	6	+15	13
4	Nottingham Forest U18	6	+11	11
5	Derby County U18	7	−2	10
6	Liverpool U18	6	+3	9
7	Leeds United U18	6	−6	9
8	Burnley U18	7	−1	8
9	Middlesbrough U18	7	−3	8
10	Stoke City U18	7	−5	7
11	Everton U18	6	−3	6
12	Blackburn Rovers U18	6	−16	6
13	Sunderland U18	4	−5	4
14	Leicester City U18	5	−5	3
15	Wolves U18	6	−16	0