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Leeds United U18 v Middlesbrough U18

Leeds United U18

3–1Full time

Middlesbrough U18

U18 Premier League - North · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Leeds United U18 3–1 Middlesbrough U18 MIDDLESBROUGH U18 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Middlesbrough U18 win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.669

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Middlesbrough U18 win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Middlesbrough U18 was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 35–19–46
1′KICK-OFF Leeds United U18 v Middlesbrough U18
6′PENALTY MISSED · 6' Middlesbrough U18
10′A goal for Middlesbrough U18 on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–17–65
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Leeds United U18 0–1 Middlesbrough U18
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Middlesbrough U18 win: 46% at kick-off, 65% now
11′We published Middlesbrough U18 at 46%. Our model now makes it 65%. 0–1 · 17–17–65
13′Leeds United U18 score on 13′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 34–21–45
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Middlesbrough U18 win: 46% at kick-off, 66% now
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Leeds United U18 1–1 Middlesbrough U18
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Middlesbrough U18 win: 46% at kick-off, 45% now
13′GOAL DISALLOWED · 13' Leeds United U18
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Leeds United U18 1–1 Middlesbrough U18
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Middlesbrough U18 win: 46% at kick-off, 44% now
35′Goals are coming at about the 4.2 we expected. 1–1 · 33–26–41
44′Leeds United U18 find the net on 43′. 2–1. 2–1 · 61–23–17
44′We said Middlesbrough U18 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 2–1 · 61–23–17
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Leeds United U18 2–1 Middlesbrough U18
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Middlesbrough U18 win: 46% at kick-off, 17% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Leeds United U18 win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Middlesbrough U18 win 17%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Middlesbrough U18 win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
45′HALF-TIME Leeds United U18 2–1 Middlesbrough U18
46′SECOND HALF Leeds United U18 2–1 Middlesbrough U18
51′We said Middlesbrough U18 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 63–23–14
63′L. White scores for Leeds United U18 on 63′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 91–7–2
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Leeds United U18 3–1 Middlesbrough U18 · L. White (assist A. Walker)
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Middlesbrough U18 win: 46% at kick-off, 2% now
64′We said Middlesbrough U18 at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 3–1 · 91–7–2
FTFULL TIME Leeds United U18 3–1 Middlesbrough U18
FTLeeds United U18 3–1 Middlesbrough U18 · Middlesbrough U18 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Middlesbrough U18 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leeds United U18 35%, draw 19%, Middlesbrough U18 46%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Leeds United U18 v Middlesbrough U18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Leeds United U18 win35%

Draw19%

Middlesbrough U18 win46%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundNorth

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leeds United U18

Middlesbrough U18

35Days since last match28

Last match: 12 Sept · U18 Premier League - North

Last match: 19 Sept · U18 Premier League - North

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Middlesbrough U18	6	−1	8
10	Leeds United U18	5	−8	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · middlesbrough u18 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Middlesbrough U18 a 46% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–2.3, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leeds United U18 v Middlesbrough U18~~1.95 – 2.25

~~Form · U18 Premier League - North this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 8~~10 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leeds United U18 win	35%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Middlesbrough U18 win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	75%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	60%	–	–
Leeds United U18 or draw	54%	–	–
Leeds United U18 clean sheet	11%	–	–
Middlesbrough U18 clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.2%

0123450 4.0 3.9 2.9 1 3.5 6.2 7.2 5.4 3.1 2 2.9 6.3 6.9 5.2 2.9 3 4.1 4.5 3.4 4 2.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leeds United U18 down, Middlesbrough U18 across0–5 goals a side shown (95.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 865 U18 Premier League - North matches up to 19 Sep 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U18 Premier League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.1% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.40 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leeds United U18 at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Middlesbrough U18 away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Leeds United U18, 2.25 for Middlesbrough U18. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.40

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LEE 3–2 MID · MID 1–2 LEE · MID 6–3 LEE · LEE 0–3 MID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · U18 Premier League - North this season · since 15 Aug

LEEDS UNITED U18

LWLLW1–6 · 2–1 · 1–5 · 1–3 · 3–1

MIDDLESBROUGH U18

DDLLWW2–2 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–5 · 1–0 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City U18	6	+18	18
2	Newcastle United U18	6	+12	15
3	Manchester United U18	5	+15	12
4	Nottingham Forest U18	5	+11	10
5	Liverpool U18	5	+3	8
6	Burnley U18	6	+2	8
7	Middlesbrough U18	6	−1	8
8	Derby County U18	6	−3	7
9	Everton U18	5	−1	6
10	Leeds United U18	5	−8	6
11	Blackburn Rovers U18	5	−15	6
12	Stoke City U18	6	−7	4
13	Leicester City U18	4	−5	2
14	Sunderland U18	3	−6	1
15	Wolves U18	5	−15	0