Leeds United U18 v Derby County U18 prediction · U18 Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Leeds United U18DrawDerby County U18

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Derby County U18 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Derby County U18 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Leeds United U18 36%, draw 18%, Derby County U18 47%. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 81%.

The AI’s read on Leeds United U18 v Derby County U18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Leeds United U18 win36%

Draw18%

Derby County U18 win47%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundNorth

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Leeds United U18

Derby County U18

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · U18 Premier League - North

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Derby County U18	8	−6	10
9	Leeds United U18	7	−7	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · derby county u18 winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Derby County U18 a 47% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–2.6, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Leeds United U18 v Derby County U18~~2.25 – 2.58

~~Form · last six in U18 Premier League - North this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~9 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leeds United U18 win	36%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Derby County U18 win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	85%	–	–
Both teams to score	81%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	95%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	70%	–	–
Leeds United U18 or draw	53%	–	–
Leeds United U18 clean sheet	8%	–	–
Derby County U18 clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.5%

0123450 2.5 2.7 2.3 1 2.2 4.5 5.9 5.0 3.3 2 2.1 5.2 6.5 5.5 3.6 3 3.9 4.9 4.1 2.7 4 2.2 2.8 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leeds United U18 down, Derby County U18 across0–5 goals a side shown (91.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 879 U18 Premier League - North matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U18 Premier League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 81.1% of games this season, across 53 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leeds United U18 at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Derby County U18 away: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.25 goals for Leeds United U18, 2.58 for Derby County U18. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DER 2–3 LEE · LEE 4–0 DER · DER 1–0 LEE · LEE 0–6 DER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in U18 Premier League - North this season · since 22 Aug

LEEDS UNITED U18

WLLWWL2–1 · 1–5 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 3–1 · 3–4

DERBY COUNTY U18

WLWDWL3–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City U18	7	+22	21
2	Newcastle United U18	8	+13	18
3	Manchester United U18	7	+18	16
4	Nottingham Forest U18	7	+12	14
5	Burnley U18	8	+3	11
6	Middlesbrough U18	8	−1	11
7	Derby County U18	8	−6	10
8	Liverpool U18	7	0	9
9	Leeds United U18	7	−7	9
10	Sunderland U18	5	−4	7
11	Stoke City U18	7	−5	7
12	Everton U18	7	−4	6
13	Blackburn Rovers U18	7	−20	6
14	Leicester City U18	6	−5	4
15	Wolves U18	7	−16	1