Derby County U18 v Manchester City U18 prediction · U18 Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Derby County U18 1–5 Manchester City U18 MANCHESTER CITY U18 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–3 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Manchester City U18 win~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.103

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Manchester City U18 win at 74%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Manchester City U18 74% before kick-off, 74% now. 0–0 · 14–13–74
1′KICK-OFF Derby County U18 v Manchester City U18
3′Manchester City U18 find the net on 3′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–8–86
3′We said Manchester City U18 at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–1 · 6–8–86
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Derby County U18 0–1 Manchester City U18
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Manchester City U18 win: 74% at kick-off, 86% now
22′A goal for Derby County U18 on 21′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 15–16–69
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' Derby County U18 1–1 Manchester City U18
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Manchester City U18 win: 74% at kick-off, 69% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 5.1 we expected. 1–1 · 16–18–66
31′Manchester City U18 score on 31′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 5–10–84
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Derby County U18 1–2 Manchester City U18
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Manchester City U18 win: 74% at kick-off, 84% now
45′HALF-TIME Derby County U18 1–2 Manchester City U18
46′SECOND HALF Derby County U18 1–2 Manchester City U18
55′Manchester City U18 find the net on 55′. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–3–96
55′We said Manchester City U18 at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 1–3 · 1–3–96
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Derby County U18 1–3 Manchester City U18
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Manchester City U18 win: 74% at kick-off, 96% now
69′A goal for Manchester City U18 on 69′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
69′We said Manchester City U18 at 74% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Derby County U18 1–4 Manchester City U18
80′Manchester City U18 score on 80′ to make it 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
80′That is 6, and we only asked for 5.1 across ninety minutes. 1–5 · 0–0–100
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Derby County U18 1–5 Manchester City U18
FTFULL TIME Derby County U18 1–5 Manchester City U18
FTDerby County U18 1–5 Manchester City U18 · Manchester City U18 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–3 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Manchester City U18 are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Derby County U18 14%, draw 12%, Manchester City U18 74%. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Derby County U18 v Manchester City U18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Derby County U18 win14%

Draw12%

Manchester City U18 win74%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundNorth

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Derby County U18

Manchester City U18

7Days since last match35

Last match: 17 Oct · U18 Premier League - North

Last match: 19 Sept · U18 Premier League - North

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · manchester city u18 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

74% The market–

Us74%

We make Manchester City U18 a 74% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–3.5, and 1–3 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Derby County U18 v Manchester City U18~~1.54 – 3.52

~~Form · last six in U18 Premier League - North this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 18~~5 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Derby County U18 win	14%	–	–
Draw	12%	–	–
Manchester City U18 win	74%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	87%	–	–
Both teams to score	75%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	96%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	73%	–	–
Derby County U18 or draw	26%	–	–
Derby County U18 clean sheet	3%	–	–
Manchester City U18 clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–3 at 6.8%

0123450 2.6 4.1 4.6 4.0 2.81 3.4 6.0 6.8 5.9 4.22 2.8 4.6 5.2 4.5 3.23 2.4 2.7 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Derby County U18 down, Manchester City U18 across0–5 goals a side shown (84.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 872 U18 Premier League - North matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U18 Premier League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.6% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 5.70 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Derby County U18 at home: 2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Manchester City U18 away: 4.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Derby County U18, 3.52 for Manchester City U18. Most likely score 1–3.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~5.70

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAN 5–3 DER · DER 3–1 MAN · MAN 4–3 DER · DER 3–5 MAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in U18 Premier League - North this season · since 15 Aug

DERBY COUNTY U18

LWLWDW1–4 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 2–1

MANCHESTER CITY U18

WWWWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 5–1 · 8–5 · 4–1 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City U18	6	+18	18
2	Newcastle United U18	7	+15	18
3	Manchester United U18	6	+15	13
4	Nottingham Forest U18	6	+11	11
5	Derby County U18	7	−2	10
6	Liverpool U18	6	+3	9
7	Leeds United U18	6	−6	9
8	Burnley U18	7	−1	8
9	Middlesbrough U18	7	−3	8
10	Stoke City U18	7	−5	7
11	Everton U18	6	−3	6
12	Blackburn Rovers U18	6	−16	6
13	Sunderland U18	4	−5	4
14	Leicester City U18	5	−5	3
15	Wolves U18	6	−16	0