Blackburn Rovers U18 v Sunderland U18 prediction · U18 Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Blackburn Rovers U18 1–2 Sunderland U18 SUNDERLAND U18 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sunderland U18 win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.342

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sunderland U18 win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sunderland U18 was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 53% now. 0–0 · 30–18–53
1′KICK-OFF Blackburn Rovers U18 v Sunderland U18
23′Blackburn Rovers U18 ahead on 23′ through T. Chimpango. 1–0. 1–0 · 51–21–28
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Blackburn Rovers U18 1–0 Sunderland U18 · T. Chimpango (assist C. Mbonzale)
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Sunderland U18 win: 53% at kick-off, 28% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Blackburn Rovers U18 win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Sunderland U18 win 28%)
24′We said Sunderland U18 at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 1–0 · 51–21–28
35′We said Sunderland U18 at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 53–22–24
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Sunderland U18 win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
45′HALF-TIME Blackburn Rovers U18 1–0 Sunderland U18
46′SECOND HALF Blackburn Rovers U18 1–0 Sunderland U18
48′We said Sunderland U18 at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 57–24–19
55′A goal for Sunderland U18 on 54′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 27–32–41
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Blackburn Rovers U18 1–1 Sunderland U18
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Sunderland U18 win: 53% at kick-off, 41% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Sunderland U18 win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Blackburn Rovers U18 win 27%)
56′We said Sunderland U18 at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 27–33–40
58′We said Sunderland U18 at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 26–34–39
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Sunderland U18 win 35%)
67′We said Sunderland U18 at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 24–42–34
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Sunderland U18 win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Sunderland U18 win: 53% at kick-off, 22% now
81′Sunderland U18 score on 80′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–13–86
81′We published Sunderland U18 at 53%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–2 · 1–13–86
81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Blackburn Rovers U18 1–2 Sunderland U18
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Sunderland U18 win: 53% at kick-off, 86% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Sunderland U18 win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 13%)
84′We published Sunderland U18 at 53%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Sunderland U18 win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
FTFULL TIME Blackburn Rovers U18 1–2 Sunderland U18
FTBlackburn Rovers U18 1–2 Sunderland U18 · Sunderland U18 win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sunderland U18 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Blackburn Rovers U18 30%, draw 17%, Sunderland U18 53%. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 78%.

The AI’s read on Blackburn Rovers U18 v Sunderland U18Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Blackburn Rovers U18 win30%

Draw17%

Sunderland U18 win53%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundNorth

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Blackburn Rovers U18

Sunderland U18

28Days since last match28

Last match: 19 Sept · U18 Premier League - North

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Blackburn Rovers U18	5	−15	6
14	Sunderland U18	3	−6	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sunderland u18 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Sunderland U18 a 53% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–2.6, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Blackburn Rovers U18 v Sunderland U18~~1.97 – 2.64

~~Form · U18 Premier League - North this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D0 L3 · W0 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 1~~11 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Blackburn Rovers U18 win	30%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Sunderland U18 win	53%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	83%	–	–
Both teams to score	78%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	67%	–	–
Blackburn Rovers U18 or draw	47%	–	–
Blackburn Rovers U18 clean sheet	8%	–	–
Sunderland U18 clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 6.7%

0123450 3.2 3.6 3.1 2.0 1 2.5 5.0 6.7 5.8 3.8 2.12 2.1 5.1 6.5 5.6 3.7 3 3.4 4.3 3.7 2.4 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Blackburn Rovers U18 down, Sunderland U18 across0–5 goals a side shown (92.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 865 U18 Premier League - North matches up to 19 Sep 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U18 Premier League - North matches have gone over 2.5 in 82.1% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.70 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Blackburn Rovers U18 at home: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sunderland U18 away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Blackburn Rovers U18, 2.64 for Sunderland U18. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.70

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BLA 3–1 SUN · SUN 5–5 BLA · BLA 1–5 SUN · SUN 7–2 BLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · U18 Premier League - North this season · since 15 Aug

BLACKBURN ROVERS U18

WLLWL2–0 · 0–8 · 1–6 · 2–1 · 0–5

SUNDERLAND U18

DLL2–2 · 1–4 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City U18	6	+18	18
2	Newcastle United U18	6	+12	15
3	Manchester United U18	5	+15	12
4	Nottingham Forest U18	5	+11	10
5	Liverpool U18	5	+3	8
6	Burnley U18	6	+2	8
7	Middlesbrough U18	6	−1	8
8	Derby County U18	6	−3	7
9	Everton U18	5	−1	6
10	Leeds United U18	5	−8	6
11	Blackburn Rovers U18	5	−15	6
12	Stoke City U18	6	−7	4
13	Leicester City U18	4	−5	2
14	Sunderland U18	3	−6	1
15	Wolves U18	5	−15	0