Home › Football › Professional Development League › Queens Park Rangers U21 v Bristol City U21

Queens Park Rangers U21 v Bristol City U21

Queens Park Rangers U21

3–1Full time

Bristol City U21

Professional Development League · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Queens Park Rangers U21 3–1 Bristol City U21 BRISTOL CITY U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bristol City U21 win~~40%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.579

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.711

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bristol City U21 win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bristol City U21 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 39–21–40
1′KICK-OFF Queens Park Rangers U21 v Bristol City U21
39′A goal for Bristol City U21 on 39′. 0–0 · 35–29–36
39′We said Bristol City U21 at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–1 · 14–21–65
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Queens Park Rangers U21 0–1 Bristol City U21
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Bristol City U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 65% now
43′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–1 · 34–30–35
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Queens Park Rangers U21 1–1 Bristol City U21
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Bristol City U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
44′A goal for Queens Park Rangers U21 on 44′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–31–35
45′HALF-TIME Queens Park Rangers U21 1–1 Bristol City U21
45′SECOND HALF Queens Park Rangers U21 1–1 Bristol City U21
49′A goal for Queens Park Rangers U21 on 49′. 1–1 · 33–33–34
49′We said Bristol City U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 2–1 · 66–22–12
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Queens Park Rangers U21 2–1 Bristol City U21
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Bristol City U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 12% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Queens Park Rangers U21 win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Bristol City U21 win 12%)
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Bristol City U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
58′We said Bristol City U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 69–22–9
61′Queens Park Rangers U21 find the net on 61′. 2–1 · 70–22–8
61′We said Bristol City U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 3–1 · 92–7–2
61′That is 4, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 92–7–2
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Queens Park Rangers U21 3–1 Bristol City U21
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Bristol City U21 win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
FTFULL TIME Queens Park Rangers U21 3–1 Bristol City U21
FTQueens Park Rangers U21 3–1 Bristol City U21 · Bristol City U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bristol City U21 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Queens Park Rangers U21 39%, draw 21%, Bristol City U21 40%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Queens Park Rangers U21 v Bristol City U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Queens Park Rangers U21 win39%

Draw21%

Bristol City U21 win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundRegular season

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Queens Park Rangers U21

Bristol City U21

5Days since last match6

Last match: 13 Oct · Professional Development League

Last match: 12 Oct · Premier League Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bristol City U21	6	+8	12
16	Queens Park Rangers U21	8	−9	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bristol city u21 winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market46%

Us40%

~~Market~~46%

We make Bristol City U21 a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Queens Park Rangers U21 v Bristol City U21~~1.97 – 2.01

~~Form · last six in Professional Development League this season · since 18 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 5 v 12~~16 v 4

~~The market · Bristol City U21 win~~46% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bristol City U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Queens Park Rangers U21 win	39%	33%	+6
Draw	21%	21%	0
Bristol City U21 win	40%	46%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	75%	77%	−2
Both teams to score	74%	75%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	90%	90%	0
Over 3.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Queens Park Rangers U21 or draw	60%	54%	+6
Queens Park Rangers U21 clean sheet	14%	–	–
Bristol City U21 clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.6%

0123450 2.2 3.7 3.8 2.6 1 3.7 7.6 7.3 4.9 2.5 2 3.7 7.2 7.1 4.7 2.4 3 2.4 4.7 4.6 3.1 4 2.4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Queens Park Rangers U21 down, Bristol City U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,493 Professional Development League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Professional Development League matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.9% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Queens Park Rangers U21 at home: 2.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bristol City U21 away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Queens Park Rangers U21, 2.01 for Bristol City U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~BRI 2–0 QUE · QUE 2–2 BRI · BRI 2–1 QUE · QUE 0–1 BRI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Professional Development League this season · since 18 Aug

QUEENS PARK RANGERS U21

LWLLLD1–3 · 4–1 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 1–5 · 1–1

BRISTOL CITY U21

DDWDWW2–2 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 3–3 · 4–1 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bolton Wanderers Res.	7	+14	18
2	Fleetwood Town U21	7	−1	15
3	Sheffield United U21	7	+6	13
4	Bristol City U21	6	+8	12
5	Swansea City U21	7	+3	12
6	Coventry City U21	6	+4	10
7	Wigan Athletic U21	8	−3	10
8	Cardiff City U21	6	+8	9
9	Huddersfield Town U21	5	+4	9
10	Charlton Athletic U21	7	−1	9
11	Barnsley U21	6	−4	7
12	Peterborough United U21	6	−8	7
13	Sheffield Wednesday U21	7	−3	6
14	Colchester United U21	7	−7	6
15	Hull City U21	6	−4	5
16	Queens Park Rangers U21	8	−9	5
17	Millwall U21	4	−7	0