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Fleetwood Town U21 v Barnsley U21

Fleetwood Town U21

2–2Full time

Barnsley U21

Professional Development League · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 16:01

Fleetwood Town U21 2–2 Barnsley U21 FLEETWOOD TOWN U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fleetwood Town U21 win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.895

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.879

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fleetwood Town U21 win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Fleetwood Town U21 v Barnsley U21
8′Little has changed for our model: Fleetwood Town U21 40% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–24–37
10′Barnsley U21 score on 10′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–20–61
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Fleetwood Town U21 0–1 Barnsley U21
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Fleetwood Town U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 19% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Barnsley U21 win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Fleetwood Town U21 win 39%)
11′We said Fleetwood Town U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–20–61
15′Fleetwood Town U21 find the net on 15′. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–25–36
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Fleetwood Town U21 1–1 Barnsley U21
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Fleetwood Town U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 39% now
36′A goal for Barnsley U21 on 36′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 14–22–64
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Fleetwood Town U21 1–2 Barnsley U21
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Fleetwood Town U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
37′We said Fleetwood Town U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–22–64
45′HALF-TIME Fleetwood Town U21 1–2 Barnsley U21
45′SECOND HALF Fleetwood Town U21 1–2 Barnsley U21
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Fleetwood Town U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
54′We said Fleetwood Town U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–22–69
69′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–2 · 5–20–76
71′We said Fleetwood Town U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–19–77
71′Fleetwood Town U21 score on 71′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 23–55–22
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Fleetwood Town U21 2–2 Barnsley U21
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Fleetwood Town U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 23% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Barnsley U21 win 77%)
72′We said Fleetwood Town U21 at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 2–2 · 22–57–21
73′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 21–58–21
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Fleetwood Town U21 win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
FTFULL TIME Fleetwood Town U21 2–2 Barnsley U21
FTFleetwood Town U21 2–2 Barnsley U21 · Fleetwood Town U21 win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Fleetwood Town U21 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Fleetwood Town U21 40%, draw 23%, Barnsley U21 37%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Fleetwood Town U21 v Barnsley U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Fleetwood Town U21 win40%

Draw23%

Barnsley U21 win37%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 13:00

RoundRegular season

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fleetwood Town U21

Barnsley U21

11Days since last match11

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League Cup

Last match: 9 Oct · Professional Development League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Fleetwood Town U21	7	−1	15
12	Barnsley U21	6	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fleetwood town u21 winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Fleetwood Town U21 a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fleetwood Town U21 v Barnsley U21~~1.74 – 1.68

~~Form · last six in Professional Development League this season · since 18 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 7~~2 v 12

~~The market · Fleetwood Town U21 win~~38% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fleetwood Town U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fleetwood Town U21 win	40%	38%	+2
Draw	23%	23%	0
Barnsley U21 win	37%	39%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	66%	69%	−3
Both teams to score	67%	70%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	86%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	45%	50%	−5
Fleetwood Town U21 or draw	63%	61%	+2
Fleetwood Town U21 clean sheet	19%	–	–
Barnsley U21 clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.6 5.4 4.6 2.6 1 5.6 9.7 7.9 4.4 2 5.0 8.1 6.8 3.8 3 2.9 4.8 3.9 2.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fleetwood Town U21 down, Barnsley U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,494 Professional Development League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Professional Development League matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.4% of games this season, across 56 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.83 goals a meeting; 6 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fleetwood Town U21 at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Barnsley U21 away: 2.33 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Fleetwood Town U21, 1.68 for Barnsley U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.83

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 6

~~Both scored~~6 of 6

~~Last meetings~~BAR 4–2 FLE · FLE 1–2 BAR · FLE 2–1 BAR · BAR 3–3 FLE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Professional Development League this season · since 18 Aug

FLEETWOOD TOWN U21

WWLWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

BARNSLEY U21

WDWLLL2–1 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 3–5 · 0–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bolton Wanderers Res.	7	+14	18
2	Fleetwood Town U21	7	−1	15
3	Sheffield United U21	7	+6	13
4	Bristol City U21	7	+6	12
5	Swansea City U21	7	+3	12
6	Coventry City U21	6	+4	10
7	Wigan Athletic U21	8	−3	10
8	Cardiff City U21	6	+8	9
9	Huddersfield Town U21	5	+4	9
10	Charlton Athletic U21	7	−1	9
11	Queens Park Rangers U21	9	−7	8
12	Barnsley U21	6	−4	7
13	Peterborough United U21	6	−8	7
14	Sheffield Wednesday U21	7	−3	6
15	Colchester United U21	7	−7	6
16	Hull City U21	6	−4	5
17	Millwall U21	4	−7	0