Charlton Athletic U21 v Cardiff City U21 prediction · Professional Development League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:02

Charlton Athletic U21 3–4 Cardiff City U21 CHARLTON ATHLETIC U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Charlton Athletic U21 win~~50%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.813

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.570

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Charlton Athletic U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Charlton Athletic U21 50%, draw 22%, Cardiff City U21 28%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Charlton Athletic U21 v Cardiff City U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Charlton Athletic U21 win50%

Draw22%

Cardiff City U21 win28%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:30

RoundRegular season

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Charlton Athletic U21

Cardiff City U21

14Days since last match10

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League Cup

Last match: 13 Oct · Professional Development League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Cardiff City U21	6	+8	9
10	Charlton Athletic U21	7	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · charlton athletic u21 winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

50% The market39%

Us50%

~~Market~~39%

We make Charlton Athletic U21 a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Charlton Athletic U21 v Cardiff City U21~~1.97 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in Professional Development League this season · since 18 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 9~~10 v 8

~~The market · Charlton Athletic U21 win~~39% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Charlton Athletic U21 win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Charlton Athletic U21 win	50%	39%	+11
Draw	22%	22%	0
Cardiff City U21 win	28%	39%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	66%	73%	−7
Both teams to score	65%	73%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	85%	88%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	44%	54%	−10
Charlton Athletic U21 or draw	72%	61%	+11
Charlton Athletic U21 clean sheet	24%	–	–
Cardiff City U21 clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.7 4.7 3.5 1 6.5 9.5 6.6 3.2 2 6.4 9.0 6.4 3.1 3 4.2 5.9 4.2 2.0 4 2.1 3.0 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Charlton Athletic U21 down, Cardiff City U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,498 Professional Development League matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Professional Development League matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.88 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Charlton Athletic U21 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Cardiff City U21 away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.97 goals for Charlton Athletic U21, 1.44 for Cardiff City U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.88

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~CAR 1–0 CHA · CHA 0–3 CAR · CHA 6–1 CAR · CAR 2–0 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Professional Development League this season · since 18 Aug

CHARLTON ATHLETIC U21

DDDWWL2–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–4

CARDIFF CITY U21

LWDDWD1–2 · 5–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bolton Wanderers Res.	8	+16	21
2	Fleetwood Town U21	8	−1	16
3	Coventry City U21	7	+6	13
4	Sheffield United U21	7	+6	13
5	Bristol City U21	7	+6	12
6	Swansea City U21	8	+1	12
7	Wigan Athletic U21	9	−5	10
8	Cardiff City U21	6	+8	9
9	Huddersfield Town U21	5	+4	9
10	Charlton Athletic U21	7	−1	9
11	Barnsley U21	7	−4	8
12	Queens Park Rangers U21	9	−7	8
13	Peterborough United U21	7	−8	8
14	Sheffield Wednesday U21	8	−3	7
15	Colchester United U21	7	−7	6
16	Hull City U21	6	−4	5
17	Millwall U21	4	−7	0