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Sunderland v Leeds
SunderlandLeedsPremier League · SUN 25 OCT · Stadium of Light
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Sunderland just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Sunderland 37%, draw 28%, Leeds 35%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off
Sunderland win37%Leeds win35%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:30
RoundMatchday 8
VenueStadium of Light
RefereeStuart Attwell
Match timeline
All events
SunderlandMINLeedsEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Sunderland
Leeds
Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League
Last match: 18 Oct · the English Premier League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Leeds | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | −8 | 4 |
Reporter Notebook: No panic stations at Sunderland despite tough startSky Sports · · Sunderland
Sunderland latest: Poznan draw was ‘good experience’, says Le BrisSky Sports · · Sunderland
INTERVIEW | Charlie Cresswell describes decision to leave Leeds United as ‘biggest’ of his careerGet French Football News · · Leeds Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Sunderland a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 37% | 32% | +5 |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | −2 |
| Leeds win | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 45% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 26% | −1 |
| Sunderland or draw | 65% | 62% | +3 |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
| Leeds clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug
SUNDERLAND
LEEDS
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 8 | +11 | 21 |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 7 | +6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 7 | +18 | 16 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 7 | +4 | 13 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 7 | +1 | 12 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 8 | −3 | 11 |
| 7 |  Brentford | 7 | +5 | 10 |
| 8 | Leeds | 7 | +3 | 10 |
| 9 |  Everton | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 10 |  Ipswich | 8 | −4 | 10 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 7 | +1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 7 | −4 | 8 |
| 13 |  Manchester United | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 |  Crystal Palace | 7 | −8 | 7 |
| 15 |  Bournemouth | 7 | −4 | 6 |
| 16 |  Tottenham | 7 | −4 | 6 |
| 17 |  Nottingham Forest | 8 | −4 | 6 |
| 18 |  Coventry | 7 | −8 | 6 |
| 19 |  Fulham | 7 | −3 | 5 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 7 | −8 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.