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Sunderland v Brighton

Sunderland

0–2Full time

Brighton

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Stadium of Light

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Sunderland 0–2 Brighton BRIGHTON WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brighton win~~42%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.497

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.518

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brighton win at 42%.
3′Much as we predicted: Brighton was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 31–26–43
3′KICK-OFF Sunderland v Brighton
35′SUBSTITUTION · 34' Sunderland · On: Malick Fofana · Off: Thomas Meunier Corrected
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Olivier Boscagli · Brighton
45′SECOND HALF Sunderland 0–0 Brighton
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Brighton win 34%)
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Sunderland 0–1 Brighton · Maxim De Cuyper
57′🟥 RED CARD · 57' Brighton
60′🟥 RED CARD · 57' Pascal Struijk · Brighton
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Brighton · On: Lewis Dunk · Off: Charalampos Kostoulas Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Brighton · On: Costinha · Off: Olivier Boscagli Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Brighton · On: Malick Yalcouyé · Off: Maxim De Cuyper Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sunderland · On: Dayann Methalie · Off: Reinildo Isnard Mandava Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sunderland · On: Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi · Off: Nilson Angulo Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sunderland · On: Juan Riquelme Angulo · Off: Enzo Le Fée Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Brighton · On: Jaouen Hadjam · Off: Diego Gomez Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Brighton · On: Georginio Rutter · Off: Yasin Ayari Corrected
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Sunderland 0–2 Brighton · Maxim De Cuyper
94′⚽ GOAL · 93' Sunderland 0–2 Brighton · Jaouen Hadjam
FTFULL TIME Sunderland 0–2 Brighton
FTSunderland 0–2 Brighton · Brighton win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sunderland win31%

Draw26%

Brighton win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Chelsea v Bournemouth, Sunderland v Brighton, and more: football – liveThe Guardian · 1 hour ago · Chelsea, Bournemouth, Sunderland, Brighton, Arsenal

How to watch Arsenal vs Leeds: TV channel and live stream for Premier League todayEvening Standard · 9 hours ago · Arsenal, Brighton

How Arteta's response to Brighton loss may shape Arsenal's next chapterBBC Sport · 1 day ago · Brighton, Arsenal

Suspended fine for Xhaka over Covid-19 certificateBBC Sport · 1 day ago · Sunderland

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Stadium of Light

Referee · Thomas Bramall

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sunderland

4-2-3-1

22 R. Roefs

32 T. Hume

20 N. Mukiele

4 K. Danso

17 R. Mandava

34 G. Xhaka

27 N. Sadiki

12 T. Meunier

28 E. Le Fee

10 N. Angulo

18 W. Isidor

Coach · Regis Le Bris

Substitutes

31 · M. Ellborg

15 · O. Alderete

13 · L. O'Nien

6 · D. Methalie

11 · C. Rigg

37 · J. Ta Bi

7 · C. Talbi

39 · M. Fofana

50 · J. Angulo

Brighton

4-2-3-1

1 B. Verbruggen

24 F. Kadioglu

44 L. Vuskovic

4 P. Struijk

21 O. Boscagli

13 P. Gross

14 C. Andres

25 D. Gomez

26 Y. Ayari

29 M. De Cuyper

19 C. Kostoulas

Coach · Fabian Hurzeler

Substitutes

23 · J. Steele

5 · L. Dunk

20 · Costinha

3 · J. Hadjam

33 · M. O'Riley

35 · M. Yalcouye

10 · G. Rutter

12 · P. David

15 · I. Osman

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sunderland

4-2-3-1

22 R. Roefs

32 T. Hume

20 N. Mukiele

4 K. Danso

17 R. Mandava

34 G. Xhaka

27 N. Sadiki

12 T. Meunier

28 E. Le Fee

10 N. Angulo

18 W. Isidor

Coach · Regis Le Bris

Substitutes

31 · M. Ellborg

15 · O. Alderete

13 · L. O'Nien

6 · D. Methalie

11 · C. Rigg

37 · J. Ta Bi

7 · C. Talbi

39 · M. Fofana

50 · J. Angulo

Brighton

4-2-3-1

1 B. Verbruggen

24 F. Kadioglu

44 L. Vuskovic

4 P. Struijk

21 O. Boscagli

13 P. Gross

14 C. Andres

25 D. Gomez

26 Y. Ayari

29 M. De Cuyper

19 C. Kostoulas

Coach · Fabian Hurzeler

Substitutes

23 · J. Steele

5 · L. Dunk

20 · Costinha

3 · J. Hadjam

33 · M. O'Riley

35 · M. Yalcouye

10 · G. Rutter

12 · P. David

15 · I. Osman

Our number · brighton winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

42% The market41%

Us42%

~~Market~~41%

We make Brighton a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sunderland win	31%	31%	0
Draw	26%	28%	−1
Brighton win	42%	41%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	52%	−1
Both teams to score	55%	57%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	30%	31%	−2
Sunderland or draw	58%	59%	−1
Sunderland clean sheet	23%	–	–
Brighton clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.3 9.2 7.2 3.6 1 7.5 12.4 8.8 4.4 2 5.0 7.3 5.4 2.7 3 2.1 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sunderland down, Brighton across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,950 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sunderland at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Brighton away: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Sunderland, 1.50 for Brighton. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:33. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SUN 0–1 BRI · BRI 0–0 SUN

Form · last six in Premier League

SUNDERLAND

WLWDLL2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 3–5

BRIGHTON

LWLDWW0–3 · 4–0 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	+3	9
7	Everton	5	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	−2	7
11	Ipswich	5	−4	6
12	Manchester United	5	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	−1	5
14	Sunderland	5	−4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	−5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	−5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	−2	3
18	Coventry	5	−9	3
19	Fulham	5	−3	2
20	Tottenham	5	−6	2