Nottingham Forest v Arsenal prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:02

Nottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal ARSENAL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Arsenal win~~52%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.341

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.260

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arsenal win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Arsenal 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 22–26–52
1′KICK-OFF Nottingham Forest v Arsenal
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Neco Williams · Nottingham Forest
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Arsenal win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
45′HALF-TIME Nottingham Forest 0–0 Arsenal
46′We said Arsenal at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 19–41–40
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Arsenal · On: Noni Madueke · Off: Eberechi Eze
46′SECOND HALF Nottingham Forest 0–0 Arsenal
47′We said Arsenal at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 19–41–39
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Arsenal win 38%)
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Noni Madueke · Arsenal
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 18–47–35
57′We said Arsenal at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 18–48–34
60′Nottingham Forest have had 9 attempts to 4 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 17–51–32
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Arsenal win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
65′We said Arsenal at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 15–56–29
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Arsenal · On: Jurriën Timber · Off: Ben White
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Arsenal · On: Viktor Gyökeres · Off: Kai Havertz
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Arsenal · On: Mikel Merino · Off: Bruno Guimarães
71′We said Arsenal at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 13–63–24
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Arsenal win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Nottingham Forest · On: Arnaud Kalimuendo · Off: Dan Ndoye
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Nottingham Forest · On: Ibrahim Sangaré · Off: Nicolás Domínguez
77′We said Arsenal at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 10–72–18
80′We said Arsenal at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–1 · 0–8–92
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Nottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Arsenal win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Arsenal win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
81′80′: Noni Madueke on the scoresheet for Arsenal, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–7–92
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Arsenal win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
84′We said Arsenal at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Nottingham Forest · On: Chris Wood · Off: Jair Cunha
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Nottingham Forest · On: Callum Hudson-Odoi · Off: James Mcatee
FTFULL TIME Nottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal
FTNottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal · Arsenal win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arsenal are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nottingham Forest 22%, draw 26%, Arsenal 52%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Nottingham Forest v ArsenalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Nottingham Forest win22%

Draw26%

Arsenal win52%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueCity Ground

RefereeMichael Oliver

Line-ups

Nottingham Forest

3-4-2-1

Arsenal

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nottingham Forest

Arsenal

7Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · the English Premier League

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Arsenal	6	+5	15
17	Nottingham Forest	6	−3	5

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Eze and Odegaard among Arsenal starters with Gibbs-White missing for Forest LIVE!Sky Sports · 18 Oct 15:55 · Arsenal, Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal: Premier League – liveThe Guardian · 18 Oct 15:00 · Nottingham Forest, Arsenal

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal LIVE: Premier League match stream, latest team news, lineups, TV, predictionEvening Standard · 18 Oct 14:37 · Nottingham Forest, Arsenal Arsenal XI vs Nottingham Forest: Predicted lineup, confirmed team news, injury latest for Premier League todayEvening Standard · 18 Oct 08:22 · Arsenal, Nottingham Forest

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nottingham Forest

3-4-2-1

26 M. Sels

23 Cunha

2 O. Diomande

5 Murillo

27 D. Munoz

24 J. McAtee

21 X. Schlager

3 N. Williams

8 N. Dominguez

14 D. Ndoye

19 L. Delap

Coach · Oliver Glasner

Substitutes

12 · John Victor

31 · N. Milenkovic

25 · L. Netz

34 · O. Aina

6 · I. Sangare

22 · R. Yates

7 · C. Hudson-Odoi

9 · C. Wood

15 · A. Kalimuendo

Arsenal

4-2-3-1

1 D. Raya

4 B. White

15 E. Konsa

6 Gabriel

33 R. Calafiori

41 D. Rice

39 Bruno Guimaraes

7 B. Saka

8 M. Odegaard

10 E. Eze

29 K. Havertz

Coach · Mikel Arteta

Substitutes

30 · I. Meslier

12 · J. Timber

49 · M. Lewis-Skelly

3 · C. Mosquera

36 · M. Zubimendi

56 · M. Dowman

23 · M. Merino

14 · V. Gyokeres

20 · N. Madueke

Our number · arsenal winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market59%

Us52%

~~Market~~59%

We make Arsenal a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nottingham Forest v Arsenal~~0.92 – 1.59

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 21 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 15~~17 v 2

~~The market · Arsenal win~~59% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arsenal win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 60% to 59% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nottingham Forest win	22%	17%	+5
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Arsenal win	52%	59%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	46%	52%	−6
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	32%	−7
Nottingham Forest or draw	48%	41%	+7
Nottingham Forest clean sheet	21%	–	–
Arsenal clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.8 12.4 10.2 5.4 2.2 1 7.0 12.2 9.2 4.9 2 3.5 5.4 4.3 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nottingham Forest down, Arsenal across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,965 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.11 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nottingham Forest at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Arsenal away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Nottingham Forest, 1.59 for Arsenal. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.11

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~NOT 0–0 ARS · ARS 3–0 NOT · NOT 0–0 ARS · ARS 3–0 NOT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 21 Aug

NOTTINGHAM FOREST

LDDWLL0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–3

ARSENAL

WWWWLW3–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	7	+12	21
2	Arsenal	6	+5	15
3	Brighton	6	+13	13
4	Chelsea	7	+4	13
5	Liverpool	7	+1	12
6	Brentford	7	+5	10
7	Everton	7	+1	10
8	Leeds	6	+3	9
9	Hull City	7	+1	9
10	Ipswich	7	−4	9
11	Newcastle	7	−4	8
12	Aston Villa	7	−4	8
13	Crystal Palace	6	−3	7
14	Manchester United	6	0	6
15	Coventry	6	−6	6
16	Fulham	7	−3	5
17	Nottingham Forest	6	−3	5
18	Sunderland	6	−6	4
19	Bournemouth	6	−6	3
20	Tottenham	6	−6	3