Newcastle v Aston Villa prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

Newcastle 0–1 Aston Villa NEWCASTLE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Newcastle win~~45%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.737

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.673

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Newcastle win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Newcastle was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–31
1′KICK-OFF Newcastle v Aston Villa
19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Joelinton · Newcastle
19′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Sven Botman · Newcastle
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' João Gomes · Aston Villa
28′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha · Aston Villa
37′Johan Manzambi scores for Aston Villa on 36′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–24–61
37′We said Newcastle at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–24–61
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Newcastle 0–1 Aston Villa · Johan Manzambi
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Newcastle win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Aston Villa win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Newcastle win 15%)
38′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 15–24–61
40′We said Newcastle at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
45′HALF-TIME Newcastle 0–1 Aston Villa
45′SECOND HALF Newcastle 0–1 Aston Villa
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Aston Villa · On: John McGinn · Off: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Nico González · Newcastle
56′We said Newcastle at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–23–67
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Yoane Wissa · Newcastle
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Newcastle · On: Bazoumana Touré · Off: Matias Fernandez-Pardo
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Newcastle · On: William Osula · Off: Joe Willock
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Newcastle win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
70′We said Newcastle at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Aston Villa · On: Leon Goretzka · Off: Emiliano Buendía
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Aston Villa · On: Ross Barkley · Off: João Gomes
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Aston Villa · On: Ibrahim Mbaye · Off: Johan Manzambi
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Aston Villa · On: Pau Torres · Off: Aaron Wan-Bissaka
80′🟨 YELLOW · 78' William Osula · Newcastle
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Malick Thiaw · Newcastle
90′Full time, 0–1. We called Newcastle at 45% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–1 · 0–0–100
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Newcastle · On: Dan Burn · Off: Joelinton
FTFULL TIME Newcastle 0–1 Aston Villa
FTNewcastle 0–1 Aston Villa · Newcastle win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Newcastle are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Newcastle 45%, draw 24%, Aston Villa 31%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Newcastle v Aston VillaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Newcastle win45%

Draw24%

Aston Villa win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueSt James' Park

RefereeJarred Gillett

Line-ups

Newcastle

4-2-3-1

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Newcastle

Aston Villa

5Days since last match3

Last match: 12 Oct · the English Premier League

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Newcastle	6	−3	8
16	Aston Villa	6	−5	5

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Newcastle v Aston Villa: Premier League – liveThe Guardian · 17 Oct 16:00 · Newcastle, Aston Villa

Newcastle join Juventus and Roma in race for Sporting’s DoumbiaFootball Italia · 17 Oct 13:15 · Newcastle, Juventus, AS Roma Papers: Liverpool set to raid Aston Villa for ManzambiSky Sports · 16 Oct 22:40 · Liverpool, Aston Villa

The rollercoaster that is the rebuild for Newcastle and Aston VillaSky Sports · 16 Oct 13:00 · Newcastle, Aston Villa

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Newcastle

4-2-3-1

21 L. Hornicek

67 L. Miley

12 M. Thiaw

4 S. Botman

3 L. Hall

6 Nico

7 Joelinton

20 M. Fernandez-Pardo

28 J. Willock

11 H. Barnes

9 Y. Wissa

Coach · Matthias Jaissle

Substitutes

1 · N. Pope

33 · D. Burn

5 · F. Schar

37 · A. Dedic

8 · A. Bamba

17 · B. Toure

14 · S. Steur

23 · J. Murphy

10 · W. Osula

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1

1 Z. Suzuki

2 M. Cash

3 V. Lindelof

5 T. Mings

29 A. Wan-Bissaka

8 B. Kamara

35 Joao Gomes

47 Alysson

44 J. Manzambi

10 E. Buendia

11 N. Jackson

Coach · Unai Emery

Substitutes

40 · M. Bizot

14 · P. Torres

26 · L. Bogarde

4 · T. Harwood-Bellis

6 · R. Barkley

27 · L. Goretzka

7 · J. McGinn

39 · B. Madjo

19 · I. Mbaye

Our number · newcastle winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:27 · locked at kick-off

45% The market40%

Us45%

~~Market~~40%

We make Newcastle a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Newcastle v Aston Villa~~1.73 – 1.40

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 5~~11 v 16

~~The market · Newcastle win~~40% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Newcastle win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. The market has gone from 45% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newcastle win	45%	40%	+5
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Aston Villa win	31%	34%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Both teams to score	62%	63%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	40%	−2
Newcastle or draw	69%	66%	+3
Newcastle clean sheet	25%	–	–
Aston Villa clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.1 5.7 4.3 2.0 1 7.1 11.0 7.3 3.4 2 6.5 9.0 6.2 2.9 3 3.8 5.2 3.6 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Newcastle down, Aston Villa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,960 Premier League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.70 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Newcastle at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Aston Villa away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Newcastle, 1.40 for Aston Villa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AST 1–3 NEW · NEW 0–2 AST · AST 0–0 NEW · AST 4–1 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 23 Aug

NEWCASTLE

DWDLWL2–2 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–4

ASTON VILLA

LLDLWD0–4 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Manchester City	6	+11	18
2	Arsenal	6	+5	15
3	Brighton	6	+13	13
4	Brentford	6	+6	10
5	Everton	6	+3	10
6	Chelsea	6	+2	10
7	Leeds	6	+3	9
8	Hull City	6	+2	9
9	Liverpool	6	0	9
10	Ipswich	6	−3	9
11	Newcastle	6	−3	8
12	Crystal Palace	6	−3	7
13	Manchester United	6	0	6
14	Coventry	6	−6	6
15	Nottingham Forest	6	−3	5
16	Aston Villa	6	−5	5
17	Sunderland	6	−6	4
18	Bournemouth	6	−6	3
19	Tottenham	6	−6	3
20	Fulham	6	−4	2